Wednesday, November 02, 2016

Approaching WD likely to Re Curve BB-15 towards NE towards Bengal...Currently BB-15 is centred Mid Way in the Bay of Bengal Between TN/AP Coast and Andaman Islands

Posted Wednesday 2nd November Night:

Due to absence from writing this blog, I am late in announcing the formation of the new system BB-15. It is currently at 13N and 88.5E, West of the North Andamans. System is now a Well Marked Low. It is likely to intensify into a Depression and move W/NW .
As BB-15 intensifies beyond Depression and tracks W/NW, heavy falls are likely over Coastal A.P, Coastal Odisha on Friday and Saturday.
After good rainfall in Tamil Nadu on Thursday, the intensity of rainfall may decrease in T.N.
Chennai will get some showers on Thursday, and rainfall may decrease on Friday and Saturday. Day temperatures rise on Friday and Saturday leading to hot day.

A Northern WD is likely over Kashmir and H.P. on Friday and Saturday. WD will be weak and will precipitate moderate rains in Kashmir Valley and snow over the Hills of H.P. and Kashmir.

A slight fall in day and night temperatures are expected from Friday in North -West and Central India. 
Shallow fog likely in Punjab and Haryana and parts of Delhi on Friday morning.
There could be stronger NW winds in Delhi NCR after 6th November.

7 comments:

Nilay Wankawala said...

SOURCE IMD

The system is very likely to move initially northwestwards during next 24 hrs and then re-curve northeastwards towards Bangladesh coast during subsequent 48 hours. It is very likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hrs and subsequently into a cyclonic storm.

sset said...

TN misses precious water mass?

Neeraj said...

Small request sir. can you write a small piece explaining the interaction of WDs with cyclones (or tropical depressions) in the Bay and Arabian sea.

Nilay Wankawala said...


SOURCE IMD BULLETIN 11.00 HRS 04.11.2016

The system is very likely to move north-northwestwards during next 06 hrs and then
recurve gradually northeastwards towards Bangladesh coast during subsequent 48 hours. It is very likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hrs.

Unknown said...

Sir when confluence of winds will take place over central India which cause good rainfall activity over MP region

rajesh said...

Neeraj: Inter action of a WD, with any system from Bay can occur mainly when we see the trough at lower level or upper level dipping Southwards. The trough has to dip into the path of any system , wherein we may see the merging of the system with the trough or into the WD trough. Herein, the double moisture content from both systems form intense clouds. These clouds will tend to rise, as colder air from any WD will try to "sink" below the tropical warmer air from systems. This will push the warmer moist air upwards, and sometimes cause violent localised storms.Sometimes, this merging may result in confluence of winds, bringing rains.
Also, if any system from Bay has already risen to upper levels with an UAC at 700 or 500 levels, and encouraged by 200 level divergence, the WD system, which is not normally tropical, see faster and massive upheavals, as the air starts rising at a faster rate.This causes heavy rains.

Next query: (Next time please reveal your name for easy interaction): Confluence of winds normally takes place when the Monsoon trough is over the region. The winds North of the trough are east, and West in the South of the trough. Also, we see confluence of winds when a trough or Line of wind discontinuity descends from any system over the region.

rajesh said...

explanation given briefly and simply for easy understanding