Why is the NEM Weak this year (as yet)...an brief analysis from Vagaries.
While reading this , compare the article of the normal conditions and parameters of the North East Monsoon on this link from Vagaries.
The Deviations seen and observed this year from the normal are:-
1. Today the Centre of 500 level Anti Cyclone is located over Southern India. Normal should be moving towards Central Myanmar.
2. Upper Air currently warmest between 10N and 20N (at -5c)..while normally it should be over 10N and upper air temperature gradually decreasing Northwards.
3. In the jet streams, S/SW winds are dominant as of today. Not Westerlies as required.
4. No prominent Low pressure (Larger) region seen in Bay. No trough extending Westwards (to embed a Low) seen forming.
5. Presently very weak or Negative MJO prevailing in Bay region. Prevents the entry or formation of any system from the far east pulse.
6. Read "A brief Analysis of the "Peninsular" rainfall for the period October to December." by GSB on the link.
See Blog below for actual performance till date.