Thursday, November 17, 2016

Posted 17th November 2016:
Why is the NEM Weak this year (as yet)...an brief analysis from Vagaries.

While reading this , compare the article of the normal conditions and parameters of the North East Monsoon on this link from Vagaries.

The Deviations seen and observed this year from the normal are:-
1. Today the Centre of 500 level Anti Cyclone is located over Southern India. Normal should be moving towards Central Myanmar.

2. Upper Air currently warmest between 10N and 20N (at -5c)..while normally it should be over 10N and upper air temperature gradually decreasing Northwards.

3. In the jet streams, S/SW winds are dominant as of today. Not Westerlies as required.

4. No prominent Low pressure (Larger) region seen in Bay. No trough extending Westwards (to embed a Low) seen forming.

5. Presently very weak or Negative MJO prevailing in Bay region. Prevents the entry or formation of any system from the far east pulse.

6. Read "A brief Analysis of the "Peninsular" rainfall for the period October to December." by GSB on the link.

See Blog below for actual performance till date.

12 comments:

Nilay Wankawala said...

Thanks a ton for obliging readers with reasons given here in your very well explaned note on of NEM failure till date. IMD I guess still maintains second half to be normal. Report dated 10 11 2016 hosted at its website.

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Sir,when will strong WD hit north India

Neeraj said...

Looks like a depressing picture for NEM at the moment - i hope it will pick up soon. I also want to ask, how will this current anomaly affect northern parts of the subcontinent or its effect is largely seen in the southern peninsular India only ? In my place, we are seeing exceptionally clear days with light westerly breeze esp in the evening ; and good thing is we got a fabulous view of 'super moon' as the night was crystal clear. The temperatures here are around normal for this time of year ; the highs in the 23-24 C range but feels quite warm in sunshine as the sky is very clear and lows a bit on the lower side in 5-7 C range. November is the dries month of the year and till now it has been completely dry.

parshuram shinde said...

Some clouds over mumbai.
What is the forecast for mumbai?

Madhava Krishna said...

Mental depression due to lack of depressions.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit :Chris Mooney, Jason Samenow, The Washington Post | Updated: Nov 19, 2016 13:31 IST via NDTV


The North Pole Is An Insane 36 Degrees Celsius Warmer Than Normal As Winter Descends

The North Pole Is An Insane 36 Degrees Celsius Warmer Than Normal As Winter Descends

Abnormally warm air has flooded the Arctic since October.

Political people in the United States are watching the chaos in Washington in the moment. But some people in the science community are watching the chaos somewhere else - the Arctic.

It's polar night there now - the sun isn't rising in much of the Arctic. That's when the Arctic is supposed to get super-cold, when the sea ice that covers the vast Arctic Ocean is supposed to grow and thicken.

But in fall 2016 - which has been a zany year for the region, with multiple records set for low levels of monthly sea ice - something is totally off. The Arctic is superhot, even as a vast area of cold polar air has been displaced over Siberia.

At the same time, one of the key indicators of the state of the Arctic - the extent of sea ice covering the polar ocean - is at a record low right now.

 The ice is freezing up again, as it always does this time of year after reaching its September low, but it isn't doing so as rapidly as usual.

In fact, the ice's area is even lower than it was during the record-low 2012.

Cumulus Arjun said...

Cold morning today in Mumbai, 16.4 C low. Weather likely to remain same.

rohit aroskar said...

Nasik and Pune lows.. in single digits ..

rohit aroskar said...

..The min temp at almost all places in Maharashtra (except Konkan and Solapur/ Kolhapur) are between 9 c to 13 c ..
..At Konkan between 13 c to 20 c ..
..Solapur / Kolhapur between 14 to 15 c ..

sset said...

Anatapur/Rayalseema/Chittor 0 mm since start of NEM (has it really started or ended?)

sset said...

Mumbai as winter sets in, abundant torrential excess rains lush forest greenary, mangroves are inviting delightful flamingos! Airoli creek bridge is hosting spectacular sight every morning.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology

Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 22 November 2016

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

Negative Indian Ocean Dipole ends, while central tropical Pacific Ocean warms

The Indian Ocean Dipole has returned to neutral levels, after being in a negative phase since May. The tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral.

In the tropical Pacific, most indicators of ENSO are well within neutral bounds. In the past fortnight, sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed once again, further dampening chances of La Niña. The Southern Oscillation Index has been negative since late October (La Niña values are typically positive) but remains neutral. Trade winds are currently close to average. Only cloudiness near the Date Line continues to show some La Niña-like characteristics.

Climate models predict the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain cooler than average, but in the ENSO-neutral range, through until the end of the 2016–17 summer. Only one of the eight models surveyed indicates La Niña for the summer months. A La Niña developing this late in the calendar year has only occurred once since 1980.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has returned to neutral levels as the monsoon trough transitions to the southern hemisphere. This shift changes the wind patterns over the tropical Indian Ocean, breaking down the typical IOD circulation. The strong negative IOD helped drive Australia's wettest May–September period in 117 years of record. The July IOD value was equal-strongest for at least 50 years.

Next update expected on 6 December 2016