Saturday, November 14, 2015

Posted Sunday Night:

Wettest November ever for Bangalore Air Port:
Cool day in Bangalore on Sunday. The day's high was 20.9c, with 5.8 mms of rain in the day. It was 20.4c at the AP with 5.2 mms rainfall.
It seems the Bangalore Air Port has recorded the wettest November ever (already on 15th) this year. The previous wettest was in 1966, when 252 mms were recorded. This year, the AP has seen 292 mms .
Bangalore city has so far measured 228 mms, and nearing the all time November record rains of 242 mms (1916).


BB-11....has remained a Well Marked Low. It has tracked due West in the last 12 hrs, and crossed the Sri Lanka coast Sunday Afternoon. It is Located around NW Sri Lanka (Inland) on Sunday evening. This has resulted in a gush of NNE winds towards the system along the TN coast. Moisture bearing winds have resulted in convective activity and clouds banding is seen in the Northern (Tamil Nadu) segment. Again, divergence in the Jet Streams have resulted in heavy rains along Northern Sri Lanka and Coastal TN, and brought heavy showers in Chennai. 

(Divergence in upper air pulls the air from middle and lower atmospheres and creates or deepens the Low pressure below)
Chennai  has seen rains on Sunday, and from 8.30 am -8.30 pm IST, Meenambakkam has measured 167 mms...far exceeding Vagaries' estimate. Season's total jumps to 869 mms. November total 784 mms.
Monday will see frequent showers. Around 80-100 mms from Monday morning - Tuesday morning.

BB-11 expected to track NNW, and enter the Palk straight, and cross TN coast (around the Pondicherry region) on Monday.


Posted Saturday Night:

With little rains on Friday and no rains (as at time of publishing) on Saturday, Chennai now sees a temporary lull ( which we expected) in the rains. 
BB-11, now a Well Marked Low, deepens and moves NW from its current location off the Eastern Coast of Sri Lanka. BB-11, a depression by then, crosses the TN coast on 16th. A pulse moves west, and again, with the help of a trough, the system re emerges in the South Arabian Sea by 18th.

Increase in rains intensity in Chennai from Sunday evening. Monday will be a rainy day. By Monday morning, we can assume around 50 mms to have fallen, and another 50 mms during Monday.
Heavy rains and squall expected all along the Tamil Nadu coast from Sunday evening.
Rains expected in S.I.Karnataka on Monday.

Bangalore too saw a gradual rise in day temperatures as expected, with the day around 24c on Friday (a pleasant 16c at night) and 25c on Saturday. 
Days back to a high of 22c on Monday 16th, with the day (Monday) being rainy and windy. Around 20 mms expected on Monday.

Meanwhile, Guess where a depleted (earstwhile)BB-10 is headed ?  Now in the Western Arabian Sea as a Low, it is headed for...Socotra Islands. 

We had expected some change in temperatures in Maharashtra from the 15th...some drop is seen in the interior regions like Madhya Mah (Pune 14c on Friday and 15c on 
Saturday, Nasik 13.6c Saturday, and Nanded 14c on Saturday). 
Mahableshwar is also comparituvely above normal at 28c (3c above normal) in the day and 16c at night. But, 

Konkan continues to remain hot and above normal.

Mumbai Scruz was 37c on Friday, and 35.8c on Saturday.
Except for a slight drop in night temperatures, maybe 1c to 2c, not much change is expected next few days.

The Northern Plains of India are facing an acute shortage of winter rains. The agriculture sector need rains soon, to add soil moisture and prevent the early winter crops from 
drying. 
With no Western Disturbance coming soon, we see dry weather next week, and no major changes in the night temperatures till BB-11 moves away in the Arabian Sea.

11 comments:

Shreyas Dhavale said...

Will BB-11 strengthen in the Arabian Sea?

rajesh said...

BB-11 will not strengthen much in the Arabian Sea..something like BB-10 ...a weak Low. Butit will move west.

Srikanth said...

I think this one is going to pass off soon Sir, may be Sunday and partially on Monday are going to be the rainy window for North Coastal TN, the good news is possibly interior places could get some more rains particularly around West TN

Narayanan Ky said...

Thanks for your prediction. BB-11 seems weaker which is better for Chennai to avoid local flooding..hope rains wait for one more day in Bangalore for test match to complete on monday

SVT said...

Thanks Rajesh. The heavy rain expected in Bangalore test match on Monday Tuesday going to come in the evening or could be day time to?

Vijayanand said...

TEST MATCH DAY 2 [INDIA VS SOUTH AFRICA]

Bad news friends. Light drizzle has increased to light rain now. Rain increased after 10.30 am. Fear day 2 is going to be badly affected.
Considering rains on tuesday and wednesday, the match would be a washout.

I am seeing high clouds today. Not much movement and very little wind.

Vijayanand said...

SVT: WE could have whole day rain like last week. Bad timing of rain. Match was going well for us :)

Vijayanand said...

Light rain still on in bangalore. Its continous rain [heavy drizzle- light rain].
Its already 12:47 pm. So pretty much feel the 2nd day of the test match is going to be wash out.

Seeing low some clouds coming in now from east now. Its wet , cold and windless here.

sset said...

According to me it should rain/rain. TN / SAP is receiving this kind of rains after many years. God,nature,accurate prediction by vagaries resulted in blessing rain. Copious rains in Cauvery delta will help ease water tensions between TN/KAR/AP. Guess 1 more low like previous one may bring all districts of TN in normal NEM (which is good). IMD has put red alert over TN for next couple of days let us hope it rains with all force.

Vijayanand said...

INDIA VS SOUTH AFRICA DAT 3 OF 2ND TEST:

Good Morning folks. Condition in bangalore same as yesterday. Very dark , light drizzle and windy. Lots of low clouds coming in from east. Its quite windy today.

Not too optimistic of full game today.

Naveen Ankampalli said...

North East Monsoon has been super active over Rayalaseema and Coastal AP.

Coastal Andhra:
Sullurpeta (dist Nellore) 26, Tada (dist Nellore) 25, Venkatagiri (dist Nellore) 17, Gudur (dist Nellore) 16,
Atmakur (dist Nellore) 16, Kavali (dist Nellore) 11, Nellore (dist Nellore) 11, Rapur (dist Nellore) 9, Vinjamur (dist
Nellore) 4, Avanigada (dist Krishna) 2, Udayagiri (dist Nellore) 2, Ongole (dist Prakasam) 1, Bapatla (dist Guntur) 1,
Masulipatnam Cdr (dist Krishna) 1, Chimakurthi (dist Prakasam) 1, Seetharamapuram (dist Nellore) 1.
RAYALASEEMA

11/16/2015: Tirupati Aero (dist Chittoor) 22, Thottambedu (dist Chittoor) 22, Puttur (dist Chittoor) 20, Satyavedu (dist
Chittoor) 20, Kodur (dist Cuddapah) 17, Srikalahasti (dist Chittoor) 15, Palasamudram (dist Chittoor) 15, Tirupati(a)
(dist Chittoor) 14, Nagari (dist Chittoor) 13, Chittoor (dist Chittoor) 12, Pakala (dist Chittoor) 12, Ananthrajpeta(arg)
(dist Cuddapah) 11, Palamaner (dist Chittoor) 9, Pullampeta (dist Cuddapah) 7, Punganur (dist Chittoor) 6, Rajampet
(dist Cuddapah) 6, Sambepalle (dist Cuddapah) 5, Kalakada (dist Chittoor) 5, Arogyavaram (dist Chittoor) 5,
Penagaluru (dist Cuddapah) 5, Gurramkonda (dist Chittoor) 4, Chinnamandem (dist Cuddapah) 4, Venkatagiri Kota
(dist Chittoor) 4, Mandapalle (dist Chittoor) 4, Royachoti (dist Cuddapah) 3, Utukuru(a) (dist Cuddapah) 3, Kuppam
(dist Chittoor) 3, Atlur (dist Cuddapah) 3, Thambalapalle (dist Chittoor) 3, Lakkireddipalle (dist Cuddapah) 3,
Santhipuram (dist Chittoor) 3, Vallur (dist Cuddapah) 2, Kamalapuram (dist Cuddapah) 2, Vempalle (dist Cuddapah)
2, Badvel (dist Cuddapah) 2, Pulivendla (dist Cuddapah) 2, Nambulipulikunta (dist Anantapur) 1, Tanakal (dist
Anantapur) 1, Kadiri(a) (dist Anantapur) 1, Amadagur (dist Anantapur) 1, Chapad (dist Cuddapah) 1, Kadiri (dist
Anantapur) 1, Porumamilla (dist Cuddapah) 1, Muddanur (dist Cuddapah) 1.