Sunday, November 01, 2015

Showers expected in Goa & South Konkan on Tuesday 3rd November and Wednesday 4th..

Mumbai again topped to 36.5c at Scruz and 35c at Colaba on Monday.
Mumbai October was hotter than May this year...see averages compiled by Rohit Aroskar
Posted Sunday Night:
Very Severe Cyclone "Chapala" approaching and soon crossing the Southern Coast of Oman and adjoining Yemen. Estimated core pressure 944/950 mb and estimated core winds dangerously high at 195 kmph. 

Mumbai: Monday 2nd Nov and Tuesday 3rd will be sunny and warm. The day temperature which was 35c at Colaba and 36c at Scruz on Sunday. Monday and Tuesday will continue to see above normal temperatures at around 34/35c. Wait for nip in the night continues.

An extremely hot October 2015 for Mumbai...unusual with record highs and record night temperatures...
Mumbai Diagram for October:
1.Diagram shows the average (day and night) temperatures...and the above normal "Red" is seen all through the month.
2. The Second diagram shows the anomaly...The average anomaly was +1.42c above normal.
3. The third diagram shows the actuals..

Goa (Monday /Tuesday) will be partly cloudy with light rains in some regions.

Chennai: Monday and Tuesday can see the thunder shower popping up in parts of the city. Around 10-20 mms per day.
Diagram for Chennai...

And the precipitation deficiency..NEM arrived on 28th October. Total for Chennai in October: AP 159 mms and Chennai 160 mms.
On Sunday, Chennai (Meenabakkam) recorded 45 mms till 8.30 pm IST).

Western Disturbance N-1 approaches Jammu and Kashmir on 2nd/3rd November. Restircted to this Northern State. Srinagar, which has seen a rise in day temperatures to 20c, may see the fall from Tuesday. Wednesday will be rainy.
Another back to back WD, N-2, may follow soon.


Anonymous said...

When will the Northern plains get the real taste of winters this month?

Majid Nasim Ahmad said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ameya said...

Sir when can we expect temp to drop below 32deg and min 20deg for mumbai/thane waiting for the good part of the year when it is dry and nice in mumbai

Narayanan chennai said...

thanks for your chennai coverage sir. Looking forward to a wet november

Rajesh said...

ameya: Mumbai will have to bear these more than 32/33c day temps till at least end of this week.
There is another low forming in the arb sea. This will deepen a bit to around 1004/106 mb. Till friday or saturday, this low will be within range of Mumbai coast to attract east winds. East winds are the reasons for the hot weather, preventing the sea breeze.
The low will move west.

sset said...

It is NEM (for name sake) but low forms over AS, WD returning back with force - any feeble low over Bay will move NE. What will happen to SE India?

sset said...

EL-NINO correlation with NEM seems to be baseless, if we are in EL-NINO then how come GUJ,RAJ,MP...received bounty rains during SWM. EL-NINO or no NEM currents may become legacy soon.

Rajesh said...

sset: I respect and take full cognisance of your comments. Would appreciate if you would at least reply and acknowledge my several communications to you thru comments on vagaries..Thanks.
This is the second time i am asking you to reply...I do hope you react in a matured manner and give some reply.

Weather outlook till Friday 2nd December Dry weather in north India in the absence of any WD, daytime weather comfortable and not extreme co...