Friday, November 06, 2015

Posted Friday 6th Night...Outlook for next 3 days (Weekend):

Mumbai...Warm days at around 34/35c, with hazy skies. evenings can be breezy and providing some comfort. The minimum temperatures in the mornings will be around 22c and 25c (between Scruz and Colaba).

An UAC has formed in the Easterly trough, East off Sri Lanka. This is likely to strengthen and become a surface Low by Friday, and track towards the TN coast this weekend.
Rainfall will gradually increase from Sunday in TN. The coastal regions and Southern peninsula will see heavy rains on Saturday and Sunday. 

Chennai will see an increase in precipitation from Saturday as the system nears the coastline. Very good thunder showers thru Sunday. Would expect around 100- 110 mms from Saturday morning to Monday morning. Could be heavy in some areas of city.

The Well marked Low, or Depression, may cross the TN coast on sunday. Can possibily emerge in the Arabian Sea of Kerala.Could be supported by a current UAC around Lakshadweep Islands.

Expecting heavy showers in Kerala. Idukki region can receive heavy showers this weekend, amounting to around 70-75 mms from Saturday morning to Monday morning.

Kashmir got fairly good rains and snow from N-2, with Gulmarg seeing a day's high of -1.5c and snow.
Well, N-3 could be milder, with precipitation restricted to the most Northern regions of  the sub continent. Northern Pakistan and Kashmir can get rain and snow this weekend, though not substantial. 
Next week N-4 could be stronger and effective.

So, for Delhi NCR, as some clouds rolled in last few days (Mild drizzles), they rolled out also. And the weekend will unfortunately not bring any more rains , or better temperatures.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There is not much mention of AS-3 in Vagaries....That is because it is moving away from the Sub Continent. But Vagaries was not much in favour of this system strengthening beyond the depression stage. 
(The Following are my Personal Views and not binding):Now, if you see this absolutely latest Satellite Image, from no angle does it look like a threatening cyclone. The bands are not defined, the centre is not properly formed/obscured, and the regions of convection are poorly defined. 


The Sat image shows the rain region as quite small , and see the dry air covering...
Anyway, one thing is sure, the dry air has started penetrating into the Western periphery of the system and now is circling from the SW and Southern sides. The western segment is already encountering dry air. The Upper ridge is pushing the system slightly southwards, and the SE section is seeing reduction of moist air incursion. 

The estimated core pressure estimates vary from model and systems of measuring. While the Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates 998 mb, CIRA AMSU: 995 hPa, CIMSS AMSU: 999 hPa, IMD states it as 994 mb and Intensity at T2.5. Winds are estimated between 85-90 kmph, which is good.
In an ordinary angle, today, it looks at the most like a Deep Depression to me.
Situation can change...

More tonight on The upcoming system in North and South...

18 comments:

rajesh said...

I have put up my Views on AS-3...Vagarians and experts, please give your views also..

Shitij said...

Honestly speaking even I think it's just the depression because a cyclone can't have such a poor structure.By looking at the satellite image of this system I really wonder whether this system really carries the wind speed of 85 km/h??????

Narayanan Ky said...

thanks Rajesh sir for your positive forecast expecting good rains for chennai. Also interesting note on AS-3 not scaling up like chapala.

Shreyas Dhavale said...

Is there any chance of this system forming in BOB to emerge in the Arabian Sea and drift northwards towards Maharashtra/Gujarat (like cyclone Jal in 2010)?...or intensify like cyclone Phyan of 2009 in Arabian Sea?

Shreyas Dhavale said...

Is there any chance of this system forming in BOB to emerge in the Arabian Sea and drift northwards towards Maharashtra/Gujarat (like cyclone Jal in 2010)?...or intensify like cyclone Phyan of 2009 in Arabian Sea?

Shreyas Dhavale said...

Will the system forming in BOB emerge in the Arabian Sea and travel towards coastal Maharashtra or Gujarat(like cyclone Jal in 2010)? Or will it strengthen like cyclone Phyan of 2009 in the Arabian Sea?

Shreyas Dhavale said...

Will this system in BOB emerge in the Arabian Sea (like cyclone Jal of 2010) ?
If yes, then what is the path it is likely to take?

Srikanth said...

Am no expert for sure, learning all the while, any reasons why you are not expecting the Bay low to intensify Sir. The atmospheric conditions are reasonably good with possibly perfect ocean conditions so fair chance of some intensification isnt it? Also the point to note is like Chapala North Indian Ocean could be hosting the only organized disturbance across the globe which gives a lot of energy impetus.

"Megh" was not expected to intensify thanks to taking the same path as Chapala plus if one observes when the Bay Low started evolving the intensification in Megh started to taper. Look forward to your views.

Pradeep said...

Shitiji, dont see structure. It has dual outflow so the strucure will be like that. Dry air is the enemy yet it is managing to hold. its good enough to be called a Cyclone.

Pradeep said...

Want to add to srikanth, Rajesh Sir, i think you have grossly underestimating the Bay system to Depression. It will be named cyclone with right conditions ahead. Shear is reducing, Good SST and TPW. There is good chance for it to go for RI.

Shitij said...

Pradeep John sir : Can you please throw some light on "dual outflow"??? Because I have heard this word for the first time.

Pradeep said...


Poleward outflow - http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/pubref/References/GUIDE/chap6img/fig603.jpg

Equatorward outflow - http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/pubref/References/GUIDE/chap6img/fig604.jpg

Dual Flow - http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/pubref/References/GUIDE/chap6img/fig605.jpg

Pradeep said...

Did u understand ? shitij

rohit aroskar said...

Happy Diwali to all Vagarians in advance !!
May the festival of lights bring prosperity to you and your family .

sset said...

On auspicious occasion, auspicious prediction by Rajesh Sir - myself looking forward for 3 digit rains (100X) over SAP and TN. SAP is desperate for water. Shreyas hope your words will not come true..

sset said...

Thanks to Rajesh sir forecast, also to Pradeep sir of KEA blog - guess all eyes of (TN/SAP) are on skies for downfall to happen...Myself plan to donate fruit tree saplings for poor framers of SAP through "SayTrees" tree plantation group - first it has to rain...idea is to sustain env and bring back birds (sparrows)

abizer Kachwala said...

rajesh sir,please post your views about rains in konkan area ,very few and less this year .will it rain in the festive season of diwali due to the BOB SYSTEM.PLEASE FORECAST YOUR VIEWS ABOUT ROHA AND PEN.

rajesh said...

shreyas dhavale: Once it emrges, we will monitor the track, but more likely seems to track WNW as of now.
abizer: Will update as the system emerges in the arb sea.