Sunday, November 02, 2014

Monday, 3rd November...Mumbai Santa Cruz shoots up to a high of 37.0c...almost near the all time high record for November which is 37.4c recorded on 4th November 1979. Colaba saw a high of 35.4c on Monday.
Hottest in India today was Bhuj at 38.0c. In Pakistan Nawabshah was also hottest at 38.0c.

Sunday (2nd November) Post ...N1 and BB-20....

The new Low in the Bay, BB-20, scheduled to form on 3rd November as mentioned in Vagaries and likely around the same predicted spot..West of The Andaman Islands.
Initially at 1008 mb, BB-20 will deepen very slowly, as it is just South of the Sub Tropical Ridge. The current STR is strong, and runs East-West upto the Arabian Peninsula. 

Initially for the next 3 days, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, it could be said that the BB-20 may not go below 1005 mb, hence even the system may not reach above a height upto 700 mb wind levels. Hence may just "loiter" around the Southern Bay for a few days. As the STR gets to dominate the region, we may see BB-20 trying to "scramble" towards the North after Thursday.
Since, the system is far from the coast, we may see a decrease in rainfall in TN . Rains may be scattered in coastal TN and Southern Kerala.

City Forecasts for Monday 3rd/Tuesday 4th and Wednesday 5th:
Meanwhile, Chennai will may get a thunder shower on Sunday night or Monday early..decrease after Monday evening.
Bangalore: Partly cloudy with temperatures in the 28-18c range.

Kolkata: Almost clear...with crisp N/NW winds by evening..Nights going down a bit to 19/20c.....

Mumbai will be sunny and warm...days around 35/36c and nights a shade better  at 21c....Sunday's Maximum was 35c.
Pune: Days will be around 31/32c. Nights will be nippy at 15/16c.

N-1, restricted to the upper levels, will not precipitate much in the Indian plains. On Monday, rain/snow will be precipitating in the Northern Hills of the Sub Continent, and Northern Pak Punjab. 
Islamabad can get showers and a cool day on Monday and Tuesday. 
But, the WD moves away by Wednesday, without precipitating in the Indian Plains. Will anticipate N-2 on the 9th.:-)

Delhi NCR will see hazy sunshine. Foggy on 4th Night/5th morning. 

5 comments:

abizer Kachwala said...

rajesh sir, according to me the the system will track in north east then west direction towards AP. waiting for your views.

abizer Kachwala said...

sir the low in bay will either come closer to tamil nadu and move towards north east and hit rangoon in myanmar.

rajesh said...

abizer: You changed your views changed between 2 comments :-)
My views already expressed..next update will give the latest

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Mumbai having some freak weather this year . Lowest rain in june . Highest max and min in june , record rain in july , record heat in oct , now nov reeling under heat . Will this winter mumbai record 7c !! I remember feb 2008 when mumbai recorder rare lower min temp than capital in feb .

sset said...

Again we have weird NEM behavior - TN/Rayalseema will enter into 5th successive drought. Only 2 weeks to go for NOV - no sign of NEM revival. Patterns seem to be same as 2013 - all lows/cyclones bypassed TN/Rayalseema, 2013 - when NOV was almost dry. Add to all these worries next cyclone may hit again Orissa/AP border. What is happening to SE India/Sri Lanka - huge climate change - guess TN is driest state. GUJ/RAJ have done well during SWM for hosting lows.