Tuesday Night: (Numbering error of Systems from Bay corrected...Erroneously numbered and Vagaries regrets the error)
BB-13, a Low, has formed in the Bay located at 12N and 88.5E, at estimated at 1006 mb. The outer isobars are circling the Low, and hence winds at sea level and 850 mb levels are circular in a uniform curvature. The Eastern and Western Quadrant winds are stronger (as isobars are closer), and are whipping up clouds on either side of the estimated centre.
BB-13 may deepen to a Well Marked Low by tomorrow ( Wednesday 5th), at 1004 mb and possibly a depression by Thursday at 1000/1002 mb. At this stage, it will be guided buy the lower winds and possibly the 700 mb level wind situation (shear/vorticity etc). Track could be Northwards initially and then NE.
This would would be detrimental for the Southern Indian region, and suck away most of the moisture from along the TN and AP coasts.
Chennai would be devoid of rains next 2/3 days with day temperatures around 34c.
BB-14 makes an entry into the Bay at 95E and 10N by 9th/10th November...
Western Disturbance N-2 is approaching the Sub Continent....and is expected over the North Pakistan regions by the 7th .
It would be covering most Pakistan regions North of the Punjab. On the 8th, would slide into India as a cold front, and would bring precipitation with thunder in the Northern Kashmir and HP regions.
Parts of Punjab and Haryana would get thunder showers.
Delhi NCR would not get rains. Temperatures may drop below 15c after 9th November.
Post 8th November:
Seeing the clear skies and colder air in the rear of the WD, we can expect a slight drop in day and night temperatures in the plains of NW India, With NW winds in the region, from 8th November, drop of 2/3c in the night temperatures in Punjab, Rajasthan, MP, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Places in Punjab may drop to 10c .
Mumbai : Relief after 9th November...Warm at 34/35c next few days. Nights around 21c, but may fall to 20c on 9th.
Pune also warm at 31/32c and nights dropping to 12/14c by 9th.