Monday, December 26, 2011
Mumbai and Pune Weather Forecast updated ..see Mumbai Page.
sset: I explained in vagaries that the ridge will form next 12 hrs and steer the system westwards. I think it will hit coast south of or very near Chennai.
Viravanalluran and Pradeep: The system will hold strength,till it strikes the coast. after that will dissipate fast as it moves westwards.
That is what I forecast and estimate as on the current scenario.
click here for better view of actual track
System pressure plummets to 994 mb in the last 6 hrs ! So, it reaches the deep depression status ! Winds, currently at 40 knts are expected to strengthen soon, and cover the outer periphery too.Expected to become a cyclone on further deepening within 6-12 hrs.
Now,at 7.30 pm, located at 11.7N and 87E, it seems the system continues to move North. Superb convection and build up has resulted in the highest cloud top temperatures reaching a phenomenal -78c !
We can expect a ridge axis to quickly develop above the 12N line, which will make the system turn westwards.Vagaries expects the cyclone to cross the T.N. coast south of Chennai by 28th late night.
Posted 26th May Night: We had mentioned in our last Monsoon Watch that the cross Equatorial winds, Somalia SST are yet to strengthen. ...