Monday, December 26, 2011

Mumbai and Pune Weather Forecast updated ..see Mumbai Page.

sset: I explained in vagaries that the ridge will form next 12 hrs and steer the system westwards. I think it will hit coast south of or very near Chennai.

Viravanalluran and Pradeep: The system will hold strength,till it strikes the coast. after that will dissipate fast as it moves westwards.
That is what I forecast and estimate as on the current scenario.

click here for better view of actual track
BB-12 Report:

System pressure plummets to 994 mb in the last 6 hrs ! So, it reaches the deep depression status ! Winds, currently at 40 knts are expected to strengthen soon, and cover the outer periphery too.Expected to become a cyclone on further deepening within 6-12 hrs.
Now,at 7.30 pm, located at 11.7N and 87E, it seems the system continues to move North. Superb convection and build up has resulted in the highest cloud top temperatures reaching a phenomenal -78c !

We can expect a ridge axis to quickly develop above the 12N line, which will make the system turn westwards.Vagaries expects the cyclone to cross the T.N. coast south of Chennai by 28th late night.




9 comments:

Pavan said...

Very severe winter in south, some places int karnataka, int ap, n i tn r recording vry low temp as 3.5deg in chintapalle in ap, 6deg in tumkur madikeri in kar, and 6deg in hosur tn as per aws but temp r nt low in int mah as thy shd be usualy thy drp belw 5deg in nasik nagar etc and pune is stil at 8.8 to 9deg c wat s d reasn, is ths d effct of cyclne, wil the min temp in mah wil rise wth the landfal, pl expln

rajesh said...

pavan: Int Karntaka, Int A.P. and adjoining regions are very cold and below normal due to complete absence of clouding (till now) and weaker NEM.The coming cyclones will create a rise in temps in southern states.
Nagar is 6c and Nashik 7c. NW winds explained in my map few days back have started, and Nashik is expected to drop to 5c next 2 nights.
Shall follow up with a write up

sset said...

Rajesh - we are happy if it moves into TN for blessing rains. Just wondering how did you predict?

But as Pavan has mentioned, look at satellite shows it moving northeast - Bangladesh,Orissa??

Anonymous said...

Thanks for quick updating. Is it possible system will go to AP coast.

Viravanalluran said...

Things that happen to JAL may happen for this system too. It is a cloud mass in DD stage. Guiding upper winds are NOT pronouncing. But in course of time it may develop. SST is 27-28 Deg Celsius close to North coastal TN and South Andhra coast. Cold dry continental winds from NORTH is drawn which may prohibit TC development.
So a portion of cloud mass may fizzle out with light to moderate rain over N TN and the remaining upper portion may move further N-NW and cross CAP.

Pradeep said...

Rajesh Sir,

Will the storm be able to hold on to the Strength it has garnered so far.

http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.com/2011/12/chennai-under-threat-cyclone-thane.html

Pradeep said...

Thank you sir,


Your graphical presentation on the cyclone is awesome

rajesh said...

Pradeep: Thanks ..trying to improve and simplify presentation..

sset said...

correct as Viravanalluran mentioned.

Cyclone Jal - 2010 Nov, which made landfall over TN did not produce any valid rains. In Mumbai terms we call such rain drizzle!!!!

Need to see if "Thane" brings relief to severe parched drought affected Rayalseema (AP)??


Ironically last 5 years all lows over Bay/Arabian sea produced excellent torrential rains to Kutch, Jaismalar (conventional deserts may disappear in coming years)!!!!