"An open system, on the other hand, deals with realities that are large and complex, and typically involve a range of variables, none of which can be isolated or controlled, much less recreated, in laboratories. The subject-matter of meteorology - continental weather systems - is an instance of the latter. Denied the benefit of real-time experiments, meteorology depends on modelling and computer simulation for its research.
A model, by definition, is not reality but an abstracted, simplified version of it. But they would have to be gods to get it right each time. Those who compare the record of the Indian Met with the western world are wrong too. Forecasting in India, by virtue of its location at the intersection of several weather systems, is infinitely more hazardous than in the West. So next time, if it does not rain, don't blame the weatherman but the complexity of his world and the limits of human knowledge."- Quoted from an article from the Times of India, some time ago.
Come on, we are meteorologists, not magicians!
Also,daily rain diagrams of Mumbai, Delhi and Sholapur, are shown at the end of this blog to indicate as to how little the "actual rainy days" are in the season.
What i personally see is the next rain spell, whether strong or moderate, will cover most of south, central, western, east and north India in its 10 day period. It may leave out a major part of north-west India.
After this spell is over, that is around the first week of September, we may see the monsoon withdrawing from the Rajasthan region.
For Mah.Gujarat and Karnataka, monsoon revival will be only after 19th.