So, everything as per schedule ! Dot on schedule, in fact, as per the "time table" of the last blog !
The current low pressure area now lies over coastal Orissand with the pressure core at 1000 mb .
And, the southward moved axis of monsoon trough today passes through Bikaner, Deesa, Jabalpur, Raipur, Center of low pressure area.
Now, rainfall activity is to start today (25th.) with heavy rainfall over Orissa, Chhattisgarh and north Andhra Pradesh during next 1/2 days and decrease thereafter as the system weakens and moves west.
Subsequently, the rainfall activity is likely to increase over Madhya Pradesh from tomorrow and over Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat state from 27th onwards.
As a result of the low merging with the upper air, and the monsoon trough over the Gujarat region, Konkan Goa and south Gujarat can expect extremely heavy rains of upto 250 mms/day around 28th. The resulting "new" low ,of around 996 mb, over Gujarat will re-emerge into the Arabian Sea around the 30th. of this month. Whether it moves west towards Oman or not, will be monitored as and when.
Mumbai, brace up for very heavy rains from Thursday/ Friday. Thursday night thru Friday will see more than 150 mms rain over the city. Friday rains may flood vulnerable areas of the city.
Depending on the movement of the system, and its "fast" merger with the axis, it is possible heavy rains may commence in Mumbai from Thursday afternoon.