Persistence influence of W.D.s, over the north of the Subcontinent is, perhaps, the reason behind the halting, or slow advance of the Monsoon for at least the last week. . Since the dissipation of Aila, my take is that rainfall within the regions where the monsoon has advanced, is been patchy and scattered.
Now, as per consistent forecasts, is shown to a northward spread of rain along the west coast as it should should be normally.
Except for the W.D.s, I fail to understand the reluctance of the rains to move north along the west coast ! The pressure gradient may not be strong enough, as the low is at 998mb., but the off shore trough along the west coast should bring rains along the west coast at least !
My forecast was for the movement of pre monsoon showers upto Mumbai by Wednessday, but I do not see any substantial cloud developments in the Arabian Sea as on today. The streamlines are ready, the Somali current is strong and the south west winds are "in form". Then why no pre monsoon movements? Your guess is as good as mine !