Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Monsoon Watch-16
Monsoon Watch, Yes. I have been only watching the monsoon, and observeing its dormant state, and non advance !
What I feel about the state of the South West Monsoon as 3rd. of June is it seems to me that the SW monsoon commenced this year only to back off after an eventful start over Kerala. I have been mentioning a lull, but this is beyond my expectations.
Persistence influence of W.D.s, over the north of the Subcontinent is, perhaps, the reason behind the halting, or slow advance of the Monsoon for at least the last week. . Since the dissipation of Aila, my take is that rainfall within the regions where the monsoon has advanced, is been patchy and scattered.
Now, as per consistent forecasts, is shown to a northward spread of rain along the west coast as it should should be normally.
Except for the W.D.s, I fail to understand the reluctance of the rains to move north along the west coast ! The pressure gradient may not be strong enough, as the low is at 998mb., but the off shore trough along the west coast should bring rains along the west coast at least !
My forecast was for the movement of pre monsoon showers upto Mumbai by Wednessday, but I do not see any substantial cloud developments in the Arabian Sea as on today. The streamlines are ready, the Somali current is strong and the south west winds are "in form". Then why no pre monsoon movements? Your guess is as good as mine !
Only reason I see is the fall in day and night temperaures in the entire subcontinent northern and central regions since 31st. May, till date. See map and observe the "fall" in the subcontinent highs from 51c to 45c, as on today.
The forecast of Madden-Julian Oscillation -- MJO -- looking forward 40 days shows a setting to favor the suppression of convective rain for about the next fortnight.
Now what ? Coastal rains can resume "any day" but the interiors will stay devoid of real rains till the 12th. at least . Penetration of monsoon inland into Karnataka, Maharashtra, and upto Gujarat remains elusive till the 12th. of June, at least.
ECMRWF shows no upcoming low in the bay till the 12th. June.

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