Thursday, June 18, 2009

A low pressure appeared on the 17th. and fizzled out equally fast in the Bay. Within 24hrs, the much awaited low vanished as fast as it appeared.
But, today, the IMD has forecasted a further progress of the monsoon into north Konkan, and Mumbai by the 21/22 June.
This may be as a result of a surge, or a burst of thick clouding being forecasted to bring heavy rains, along the west coast of india. But, as per the COLA estimates, the heavy rainfall pattern is restricted to the region south of Ratnagiri (mostly to Kerala/Karnataka coast). The north Konkan- Mumbai region shows a very nominal rain of 5-10 mms in the week begining from 20th. June.
If the monsoon is advanced over the north Konkan by the 21st. it will most likely be as a weak current !
I feel, for Mumbai, it can still go beyond this date by a day . Anyway, the interiors of the states of Maharashtra ,M.P. and Gujarat will be looking out for the monsoon till the 1st. week of July.

By the way, the last date the monsoon has ever advanced over Mumbai, in its 130 years history is 25th. June. Never beyond that date.
And, the rainfall, monsoon figure, as on 17th. June shows a rain deficit of 45%, overall throughout the country.

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