Monday, June 08, 2009
After the fizzling out of the low from the bay, I obsereve something 'surprising", or rather something "unwarranted" at this stage of the advancing season !
The MSLP map and streamlines map from the IMD show a clear shifting of the yet unformed monsoon trough away from the normal east-west postion at 15N. We see a weak trough along the line south of the Himalayas, across Haryana thru the state of U.P.
The result of this is the upper air 200hpa jet streams, which should normally be east-west below the 20N line, are now in the direction mentioned below the 15N line. Pushed down for a few days by the "static" situation created.
Though this may,( and should) , change within 2 days, it is uncalled for at this stage. This development will "halt " the monsoon advance (again), and "subdue" it as per the IMD.
The advance of the monsoon along the west coast upwards from Ratnagiri will become tardy again for 2/3 days, thus lenghtening the wait for Mumbai.
Meanwhile, i would like to mention the unusually big "jerk" with which this "weak monsoon current" has moved into Goa and south Konkan. A weak current though, the monsoon movement northwards into Goa was with a whopping 43 cms of rain in Sanguem and 20 cms in Panaji, and 17 cms in Ratnagiri and 17 cms in Canacona (Goa). So, in a small stretch of about 75 kms along the west coast, massive amounts of heavy rain s have been recorded in 24hr periods.
The next day , the amounts of rain were almost negligible !
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