Saturday, June 07, 2008

Monsoon Watch-22

A brief write up on te developments in the sub continent in the last 2 days( since the last blog):

1. The suspect system in the Arabian Sea is fizzling out. It "graduated'' to no more than a depression, with some rain in south Oman.
As a result, the monsoon winds in the eastern seas have regrouped faster, and within a day, the monsoon current advanced into the Konkan, including Mumbai. The monsoon, as per my estimate, has advanced upto Dahanu in the Konkan region, and south madhya maharashtra in the inland regions as on the 7th. of June. Thus putting Mumbai city into the "monsoon area" on the 7th.
The cross equtorial flow is in full swing , and gusty winds are likely to strenghten the monsoon over Konkan in the next 2 days. In fact, with a low in the 500hp level predicted over north Konkan on Sunday (8th. June), I estimate very heavy rain over Mumbai on Sunday/Monday. Maybe around 100mm to 125mm in a 24hr. period.

2. The pressure gradient has also become favourable for the above development. The seasonal low over the Pakistan area is now at 996mb and the tip of Kerala is 1008mb. Good enough for the monsoon thrust.

3. And finally, I suspect a low to build up in the south Bay by the 7th. or 8th.and deepen into a depression in the susequent 2/3 days. This will also help pull up the monsoon along the east coast, as well as bring more precipitation along the west coast. Thus, if the bay low develops by Sat/Sun, we should see more rain in A.P. and coastal Karnatak/Maharashtra on Sunday/Monday. The actual mobement of the system will then be followed for further forecasts.

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