Sunday, June 29, 2008

On the South Asian weather front, the situation is variable as on today..
From the western end, there is the normal summer heat of 48c in S.Arabia, and 46c in the U.A.E. But the temperatures have dropped a bit in the Oman region.
Eastwards, Pakistan is having rains in the north, due to the western end of the monsoon trough holding on, and dry in the central and south. The highs in the Sindh region is around 43-45c.
Moving to India, the heavy rains persisted in the Punjab, H.P.and west U.P. areas and also in the eastern regions of U.P. and Bihar.
The monsoon trough is along the west U.P /north M.P. and Bihar line.
However, the extreme western end of the trough (seasonal low), now over north Pakiastan, should have, by now, gradually moved towards the west into Baluchistan and into the Arabian region. On this happening, it would have been difficult for the trough to stay and get hooked over northern India, and could have moved south. The seasonal low can even now, with the exrteme heat in west asia, creep into the west asia region and stretch the "trough end" away from the subcontinent.Much needed rains could then commmence over southern areas of Pakistan and the monsoon could cover all of India.
A ray of hope for the state of Gujarat. An upper air circulation has appeared over the north Arabian Sea, off the coast of Gujarat and north Maharashtra.
Forecasts show this system to move inland into Gujarat in 2 days, around the 30th./1st. Hence, some heavy rains could be expected in coastal Gujarat, and regions of Rajkot, Surendranagar, Ahmadabad and eastern Gujarat areas on the 1st. Similarly, some heavy rain could also be expected in north Maharastra coastal regions.(western ghats hill staions will get some heavy rains, ranging from 100-150mms in the next 2 days).
The estimated forecasts do not indiacte the system to last for more than 2 days.
Hence the rains due to this system may be short lived and may last for 2 days .

No low is forecasted to form in the Bay for another 2/3 days atleast. Hence the interiors of the peninsula areas will continue to remain dry into the first week of July.
kapadias@gmail.com


No comments:

Posted 20th October: South West Monsoon having withdrawn from all regions of the country except Coastal Karnataka and Kerala. The SWM lin...