Thursday, June 05, 2008

Monsoon Watch-21
Let us carry on from the last MW -20. The monsoon movement is, surprisingly, as predicted.(If one can recollect, the monsoon was most unpredictable and erratic last year!).

After advancing into Kerala, it has moved up the Karnataka coast in the next 2 days, and the northern limit was at Goa as on the 2nd. Now for the tardy advance. It has reamined weak (or a feeble current as I always say), and this is shown clearly by the poor rain fall in the image. The image is of the day's rain on the 4th. and all the monsoon areas along the west coast are in the "blue shade", that is less than 10mm rain !

The rain in the northern region has stopped as from the 3rd, finally!-The graph of Delhi for May shows the lack of summer heat throughout the month. The average May temperature was 2.5c below.

However, since the last 2 days, the heat in the northern areas of Pakistan/India has now achieved the average norms, but still no heat wave. Not enough to really pull up the monsoon in the next few days. Core of seasonal low is still at 1000mb.

Another disadvantage is the low level circulation that has formed in the Arabian Sea. The "LLCC" today was around 450Nm south west of Mumbai. I call it a disadvantage, as , even though the cross equatorial flow is now good, all the moisture bearing winds (and clouds) will swirl around the circulation, and not move into the west coast of India. Thus, for another 2 days, the "lull" in the "monsoon advanced regions" can continue. Only to regroup, and push the monsoon again northwards into Goa and Konkan (and Mumbai) after 3/4 days. So we come back to our original date for Mumbai, around 9th. June !
The mentioned LLCC, according to the JTWC, has a "fair" chance of becoming a cyclone. One is not sure of this, as the Arabian Sea has given the "cry wolf" call thrice this last 15 days. But in any case, some intensification of the system will surely precipitate moderate rain along the south Oman/Yemen coast by the 7/8th. June.

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