Wednesday, June 18, 2008

The monsoon has jumped and raced into Delhi well ahead of schedule, 15 days early after 108 years. Thats all ok. But the "break monsoon " conditions for the central/south peninsula and western region, discussed in the last blog, has occured.

The depression formed in the bay rushed off in the north/ northwest direction and as a result poured heavy rains in Bengal, north Orissa, east U.P. With the monsoon trough well established along the foot hills , the "break monsoon" has been created in the central, western and southern regions of the country, which have recieved very negligible rain in the last 2/3 days now. The image shows rain of Tuesday, and check the areas where it is concentrated. Totally avoiding the regions in the west/south and central, typical of the break conditions.

Now what ? Now we have to watch the movement of the depression. 1.) As it fizzles out, it may move north/north-west. In that case, the break in the areas mentioned may be extended till the system is fully drained out. That normally takes around 5/6 days.

2.)On the other hand, if the system drains out fast,in a day or two,, without moving, and static over the current position, then in 2 days the monsoon trough can shift down to bring increased rains back to the "break" regions.

The situation will have to be watched. Situation 1.) is typical of early monsoon stage, and 2.)of mid monsoon period. I have no comments or forecasts, but the first situation is not desirable now, because as explained in the previous blog, interior areas of Mah./Karnatak,Kerala and parts of Gujarat/M.P. need the rains more.




1 comment:

shiraz satarawala said...

Dear Rajesh
It has been a week since it rained in Mahabaleshwar. Surely it is a lull before the storm !!
Shiraz Satarawala

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