Friday, June 27, 2008

The latest rainfall distribution map says it all.
As on the 27th., the all India rainfall map on the IMD site shows the excessive rain areas in the north along the "monsoon trough line" of which I have mentioned in the last few blogs.
And, the deficiency has started creeping southwards, taking the inland path.
Well, this picture was anticipated and foreseen all along, what with the monsoon trough hugging the Himalayan foothills,almost immediately after setting in almost throughout the country.
Last weeks' rain is seen in the map of the week's rain at IMD, and the rain excess region is seen along the trough line. The remaining areas south of M.P. have had very scanty rain during the week.
Reports from Maharashtra show the situation getting seroius, specially in the interiors, with the Marathwada region ( I had previously mentioned Aurangabad as a scanty rainfall area) showing a deficit of 61% !
Kerala, another seriously deficit state, has effected power cuts from 27th.
Now what for the next week ?
The low mentioned in the last blog in the Bay did materialise, and soon shifted into the north bound monsoon trough. It lay today as an upper air circulation, and is pouring rain over...yes..again over north M.P.,Chattisgarh,and parts of Delhi and, H.P. and Punjab. Thus leaving the dficit regions quite dry.
With no more lows forecasted till the 1st of July, I do not see the trough shifting drastically to its normal position till the 1st. of July. Hence no major shift in rain pattern southwards from M.P. downwards can be expected in the next 4 days.
The same pattern of rain, north bound, should continue over Pakistan too.
I give a cautioned forecast of 4 days this time, as it is hoped, that even without the formation of a low in the Bay, the monsoon trough can at times shift back to its normal position in the "peak monsoon season time" that is the first week of July.

Western Ghats stations of Lonavala and Mahableshwar may not see any substantial increse in rain till 1st. July at least.(Lonavala my get about 15mms of rain/day anf Mahableshwar may get around 25mms /day).

Meanwhile, in Oman, severe heat has brought temperatures in the 45-47c level in the last 2 days, with Muscat touching 47c today, 27th. Heat is expected in the Oman and U.A.E. regions in the neaxt 4/5 days.

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