Sunday, April 22, 2007

Monsoon Watch- 6

There has been a good activity of thunderstorms in the central and southern peninsula in the last few days. An "oft and on" continuation of this, for another month, will gradually result in a good increase in the moisture level and heat condensation level in the atmosphere, and a further heating of the region will help in moisture holding capacity. If this condition sustains for another month, it should clear the way for monsoon flows to establish by the last week of May.

The IMD,in its monsoon estimate, has forcasted a very general "95%"(that too with 5% margin error) of the average rainfall. No setting time mentioned, no regional distribution of rain stated and no explanation of any parameter pertaining to the statement given by IMD. So any one region in the country can have rainfall as low as 85% and another region can have 110%, and still the estimate given will be correct !! And IMD states it will issue the exact update in June, after the monsoon has set in !!

International meteorologist Jim Andrews, and The International Research Institute (IRI) have observed that weak `El Nino` has clearly given way to a `Neutral` setting with respect to the middle and eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean (ENSO); indeed, weak `La Nina` may be the next step. It is common meteorology understanding that `Neutral` to `La Nina` favors normal to above-normal rains for the SW Monsoon over India.IRI has maintained its outlook for an above normal rainfall in India this year.This in contrast to the below normal put by IMD.

IMD fails to give a regional distribution, but IRI has predicted heavy rainfall for the west coast and Saurastra.The monsoon current,will be supported by an expected evolving La Nina event in July, when good rains are expected.This is very crucial information from the point of view of kharif crops !

Thus international models predict an better organised and evenly distributed rainfall, with heavy falls along the west, specially during July/August. and an early onset.

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