Saturday, April 07, 2007

Monsoon Watch - 2

Carrying on from the last Monsoon Watch, it is seen that no W.D.'s have penetrated into the Northern India region. The heat wave has extended into South Rajasthan and Gujarat region now.With increase in day temperatures heat wave conditions likely to extend into rest of Maharashtra and West Madhya Pradesh,.The heat has also crossed the border into Pakistan today,with Chhor,in Sindh recording 44°. Akola was also at 44° today,and a number of places in Gujarat and Maharshtra were in excess of 41°.

So, as mentioned in the previous "Monsoon Watch"(MW), this heat wave will induce a "seasonal low" in the Northern parts of India(later to extend into Pakistan), around the middle of April, as it is properly getting induced by the pre monsoon heating.There are no indications of the heat subsiding, to a large extent, in the next 10 days.

Also, in the Bay,a trough of low has formed east off the Sri Lanka coast.This is likely to develop into the predicted" low" in the bay by around the 15th.of April,( as the bay waters have started heating up now).Though the bay has not heated enough yet, the south bay is still at 30°, it should start warming up fast now.This will be the first pre monsoon "low" of this season in the bay, and with this ,the pre monsoon features will set in.

These developments are as anticipated in "MW" 1, so, if maintained,we will then observe the change in the cross equitorial wind pattern and the tropical jet straem in the next 15 days.

As on now,the Monsoon Calendar seems to be about a week ahead of the normal date.

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