Friday, April 20, 2007

Monsoon Watch -5

The IMD has issued its April Monsoon estimate for 2007.It has declared that the Monsoon 2007 will be 95% (+/- 5%) of the normal.

As it is an overall estimate of the all India monsoon,the break-up area wise needs to be seen.

The current heat wave has been pushed to the north west of India (map), and temperatures even in Pakistan have come down marginally.The highest today was compartively "low" at 43° in Pakistan (Nawabshah) and 42° in India (Jodhpur).(These figures seem lower after the heat wave, but are near normal levels). This is a temporary phase due to the thundershowers in the region, and the temperatures will rise back to the mid 40s.

Maharashtra and Gujarat are likely to heat up again from 22nd. and interior parts may touch 44°.Mumbai will be extermely uncomfortable,especially at night, with the humidity increasing,and the minimum likely to be 28°.No localised thundershowers are likely in Maharashtra till this month end.

The seasonal low is establishing over Northern parts of the sub continent,and thus assuring a favouarable pre monsoon condition.The Bay has heated up a bit,but needs to be observed in the next few days, before a low formation can be assured.

Thus, the "land part" is performing well,ahead of schedule (for the monsoon),with the trough in the southern peninsula intact.While the "sea part" (the bay branch & arabian sea branch) is not heating up enough to form the pre monsoon low as needed.But I estimate the seas will heat up next week, and it seems the arabian sea is heating up faster than the bay.

Infact, my personal estimate is the monsoon should set in a few days before the due date.

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