Co Authors: GSB, Shreyas Dhavale, Pradeep John, Dr. Vineet Singh, Gokul

Friday, October 02, 2015

After heavy overnight rains amounting to 64 mms, Belgaum again gets another 18 mms till 5.30 pm Friday..

Kolhapur 30 mms, Pune 20 mms (Pune AP 11 mms) and Mshwar 19 mms  till 5.30 pm Friday.

Posted Friday Morning:
Thunder showers expected on Friday evening in and around Mumbai.
Finally, Light thunder showers in Parts of Mumbai on Thursday evening...Vagaries measured 1.5 mms.
Along the Coast, Alibag saw 5 mms, Harnai 14 mms, Ratnagiri 19 mms and Vengurla 38 mms.

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Monsoon (2015) and Monthly Update  Compiled by Vagarians for Mumbai and Surrounding Townships very well Depicted on Mumbai Page.

Vagaries Goa has Updated Goa Monsoon 2015 in Superb Format

Below Map from Rohit...More Maps of 2015 Monsoon Rains of Coastal Maharashtra and Coastal Karnataka on Rohit's Page..



Wednesday, September 30, 2015


FINAL MONSOON REPORT (01-6-2015 TO 30-9-2015)


TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 30-9-2015) 760.6 mm
SEASON +/- -14%


RAINFALL PER DAY from 01-06-2015 to 30-9-2015  6.23 mm

                 TOP TEN SUBDIVISIONS ACTUAL
                  BOTTOM TEN SUBDIVISIONS ACTUAL
                  TOP SEVEN SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL
                BOTTOM TEN SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL 
                     CATEGORY WISE SUBDIVISIONAL (%)


                     % DISTRIBUTION ABOVE/BELOW  DAILY RAINFALL


             REGIONAL RAINFALL ACTUAL
                MONTHLY RAINFALL ACTUAL

               2015 RAINFALL IN PERSPECTIVE



                                                                                                                       source:IMD

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Mumbai Santa Cruz Sees the Hottest Day Ever in September.. on 30th September 2015 ..recording 37.4c...Previous Highest was also on 30th september last year (2014) when the record broken was 37.0c..

An Upper Air Circulation has formed in the South-East Arabian Sea off the Kerala Coast.This will bring rains to Kerala on Wednesday.
This system  may be nudged towards the West.

The other Low in the Bay (mentioned in Tuesday Night Post below) will be "pushing " West into the Peninsula, and can enter the A.P./North T.N. coast as mentioned and track thru the Interior Peninsula..more of this later...

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Posted Tuesday Night ( 29th):
Mumbai: While Vagaries had forecasted hot days from October 1st, the mercury impatiently has already risen to 36c at Santa Cruz on Tuesday 29th. A hot Wednesday again expected.
But, the expected thunder showers  seem to be in no hurry to arrive....Mumbai City and surrounding regions can expected Thunder showers in the current week itself, within a day or two. 
Then after the (last) spell of thunder showers, we can  consider the Monsoon withdrawal from Mumbai.

Apropos to our post of Friday 25th, The South West Monsoon has further withdrawn ( on 29th) from all regions North of the retreat line, which runs through from  Gujarat, West M.P. and into Uttarakhand covering West U.P.

Further withdrawal from M.P, North Chattisgarh, U.P. and Bihar will be in the next 2 days.

We wait for the Maharashtra withdrawal till end of the current week.

Also, as forecasted, an East West trough has fromed in the Bay, along the 12N line from the East coast of India into the Bay. A Low (1006 mb) has formed in the Andaman Sea, embedded in the trough. ( Not yet numbered).
We can expect the Low to track West along the trough, and bring rains along the North T.N. coast (including Chennai ) in the next 4 days.( Increase in rains on Thursday for Chennai)

Rain and thunder showers expected this week in South Konkan and Goa also. Next few days this week, thunder showers expected in South Madhya Maharashtra also.

Bangalore will get thunder showers next 2/3 days. Wednesday may see heavy showers, amounting to around 30 mms.

Besides Mumbai, Ratnagiri, Surat, Ahmadabad and Veraval aslo saw 36c on Tuesday 29th September.

Sunday, September 27, 2015

"Astrosat", India's first Space Observatory (and only the 4th in the World after U.S, Russia, Japan), is set for Launch on Monday 28th September. 

Astrosat is a smaller version of "Hubble", the U.S.-European joint space Observatory. It will be Launched through Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle from Sriharikota at 10 am IST Monday.
Instruments on board will study Black Holes, Quasars, Neutron Stars, White Dwarfs and Pulsars.

In a first, the PSLV will also carry a payload of four U.S. Commercial Satellites, the first Launch of U.S. Satellites by India. The Satellites are  start up Satellites for Weather Monitoring.
Wishing all the Best to ISRO

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Hot Day Temperatures in Kerala, Karnataka and A.P. (25th September)...Now headed for Heavy rains.

September All Time Highs Reached:
Kannur(Kerala):- Max temp-34.2 (4 degree above normal) ..Previous Record 34.0c on 30 Sept 2002
Kozhikode (Kerala)-35.6 (6 degree above normal)...Previous Record 34.7c  on 30 Sept 2014
Belgaum (AP) (Karnatka):-32.9(4 degree above normal)...Previous Record 32.8c  on 19 Sept 1987 (AP)

Places which have broken the record of at least 10 years:-
Bijapur (Karnatka):-34.5 (3 degree above normal)
Mandya (karnatka):-34 (4 degree above normal)
Kurnool (AP):-37.7( 5 degree above normal)
Ongole (AP):-38.7(5 degree above normal)
Anantpur (AP):-37 (4 degree above normal) it has breaking record of last 8 years
Gulbarga:-35.5 (3 degree above normal) it has broken the record of last 5 years

Input by Vagarian Vineet

Vagaries Meet on 26th September 2015 at Upvan Lake , Thane...Pics on "Vagaries Meet in Pics" Page

Friday, September 25, 2015

Posted Friday Night:

1.25th September, South West Monsoon Withdraws from Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Kutch and Uttarakhand.

Seasonal Low is weakening, and core, which is at 1002 mb today, weakens to 1004/1006 mb in next 3 days.
Likely withdrawal from West U.P., West M.P. and Gujarat by 28th September.

2. Weather Estimate for the Weekend 26th /27th September: 
Heavy rains in Kerala and Interior T.N.
Moderate thunder showers popping up in rest of T.N, Karnataka, Rayalseema and Goa.

Thunder showers likely in Goa this weekend.
Bangalore will get Thunder showers on Saturday and Sunday. Sunday showers will be heavier, may be between 25-30 mms in the city.

3. A Low pressure area is likely to form in the Andaman Sea (Bay) around 30th September. Initially weak, may deepen to a regular Low and then Well Marked Low, and track NW. Should be tracking towards A.P. coast and the current observations of upper winds show and indicate it crossing A.P. around 4th October.....These Systems, in season's withdrawal stage, are highly "unstable", and depend on the upper winds, which are themselves in a fluctuating mode this time of the year...will keep posting as things and cyclogenesis develops.

Mumbai: Hot and sunny this weekend.  Monday and Tuesday, some thundery developments, with some rains in parts of Mumbai.
Days getting hot after 1st October.

Actual Day Maximum on Friday 25th: Delhi Palam 35c, Mumbai Scruz 32c and Chennai (both stations) 36c, Calcutta DumDum 35.5c.

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