Co Authors: GSB, Shreyas Dhavale, Pradeep John, Dr. Vineet Singh, Gokul

Sunday, October 08, 2023

 Dr. Vineet's Page Updated

8th October Evening..

Mumbai: With the Monsoon over...Expect slightly less humid  conditions. Humidity around 75% and some cloudiness will still create a real feel temperatures of 38c.

Air Quality 👇


Where is Mumbai in World Ranking (Air Quality) ?


Pune: Some clouding, higher altitude, will result in a day temperature of 33c. But as we have some moisture around, nights expected around 19c.

Air Quality getting bad gradually in Pune..👇


Delhi for Comparison.👇


AQI here not as bad as Eastern U.S.😑

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The South West Monsoon withdrawal process continues South of Maharashtra...850 Chart 👇

But next 3/4 days, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala can expect some increase in rainfall activity.

Saturday, October 07, 2023

Weather forecast from Saturday 7th October to Tuesday 10th October:


With Monsoon having withdrawn from Mumbai and Pune, October heat will be witnessed in the daytime. 


Mumbai: Days will be hot with max temperature around 32-34°C. Daytime hot and dry easterly winds are missing, so humidity will still be moderate. Nights will continue to be around 24°C, with places in Thane district seeing slightly cooler night/early morning temperatures. 

Dry easterly/northeasterly winds may be witnessed from/after Sunday, but their intensity/speed could be higher only from Tuesday/Wednesday onwards.


Pune: Night time temperature has started dropping over the city and the Deccan plateau region. Pleasant nights with minimum around 18°C will continue. Days can be warm around 32°C. 

Some fog may be observed in patches during early morning. 

Other areas in north Madhya Maharashtra (Nashik, Jalgaon, Dhule, Ahmednagar, Satara) and northern districts of Marathwada (Ch. Sambhajinagar, Jalna) will see warm days (32-33°C) and pleasant nights (17-19°C). 

Southern districts in Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada regions will see hot daytime weather of 34-35°C and nights can be around 20°C. 

Vidarbha region will see warm days (33-34°C, dropping to around 32°C next week) and pleasant nights (18-20°C). 

Some afternoon clouding can be possible over southern Ghats of Maharashtra and Goa, where the Monsoon moisture is still relatively high. 

Mahabaleshwar will see pleasant weather with daytime highs around 28°C and nights/early morning lows around 15°C. 

Possibility of some rain/thundershowers after Wednesday 11th October in some areas of Goa and possibly Sindhudurg/Kolhapur districts of Maharashtra. 


Gujarat: Mainly hot daytime weather will continue in Ahmedabad/Bharuch/Surat/Vadodara, Saurashtra and Kutch regions with max temperatures of 33-35°C. Nights around 23C, not very pleasant. Coastal areas could see slightly lower max temperatures in few places in Kutch/Saurashtra. 

Thursday, October 05, 2023

Posted 5th October 

Vagaries' calculated date ..5th October..

Monsoon over in Mumbai...

Monsoon rains have withdrawn with such dry conditions from Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. 👇

Chart compiled by Vag. Gokul

The low pressure system over West Bengal will also weaken and rain will gradually stop in the next 48 hours. Large parts of India will get drier in the next one week.

Nights getting cooler in Interior Maharashtra..On  5th morning  Sambhajinagar recorded 18.6°,  Jalgaon 19.0° and Pune 19.3°.

 Dry air intrusion brought by eastward extending subtropical ridge at mid levels lead to clear skies and LW radiation emission resulting in temp. drop.

Rajasthan also starts getting cooler with Sikar recording 14.5°.

Credit to Vag. Gokul for contributing. 

Wednesday, October 04, 2023

 4th October 

The subtropical ridge continues to extend further east from the Arabian peninsula towards most parts of North west and west central India injecting dry air into the region day by day favoring conditions for further withdrawal of monsoon over India.


Compiled by Vag. Gokul

Monday, October 02, 2023

Final Figures for Mumbai Monsoon 2023

Santacruz 2978 mm ( 117.2 ")

Colaba 2398 mms ( 94.5")

Ending on good note with Lakes at 99.3% full...enough storage till next monsoon.

Monsoon to completely withdraw by 4th October..4 days before official date of 8th.

2nd & 3rd October: Light drizzles in some parts.

4th October:Almost dry as Monsoon over. Sunny and hotter. 

Compare with Maharashtra Coast


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Sunday, October 01, 2023

FINAL MONSOON REPORT 2023

 

     This monsoon had an August that saw a rainfall deficit of 36%!! A good September that gave us 13% above normal rainfall made up the August deficit somewhat but we still ended this monsoon with one of the 30 lowest monsoon rainfall since 1901. As seen in the figure below the red line shows the present monsoon status and where it lies on the monsoon distribution curve since 1901. A total of 27 years have seen lower monsoon rainfall than 2023 since 1901. 1972 with 697.4 mm saw the lowest monsoon rainfall in this period. 

In this century 2018 (802.7 mm), 2015 (765.8 mm), 2014 (781.7 mm), 2009 (698.2 mm), 2004 (774.2 mm), 2002 (737.3 mm) were years with monsoon rainfall lower than 2023. 


X-axis represents years with monsoon rainfall starting from lowest of 697.4mm in 1972 (extreme left) to 1124.2 mm in 1917 (extreme right).




 


South West Monsoon Announcement # 1

12th May Night Post:  A weak low (BB 1) forms in BoB, displacing the anticyclone.  This is likely to intensify a little and open the doors f...