A first hand Experience of "Vardah" from Chennai....by Vagarian Pradeep John.

Historic winds speeds in entire Chennai and massive deluge rains in South Chennai - A fearful memory of Cyclone Vardah to remain for lifetime

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Atlast power is back in Anna Ngar West. Sorry to all, i could not continue to post yesterday after the Cyclone landfall as my battery drained out and then the network was down. 2nd time in my life i had witnessed Cyclone's fury and maybe as i grow old i will forget the 1st one in 1994, but this one i will not. I dont know exactly how much damage this has caused in terms of loss of life or assets. It was really scary even to me who has dreamt of seeing a landfall like this for 20 years. I know lot of lives are affected (direct or indirectly), its not my wish to see joy in others sufferings. I am a pluviophile, its in my heart and mind waiting to witness a event like this. Coming to rains, the worst are over. Dont believe in Rumours that next cyclone is coming. Next one will probably be Low Pressure Area (max) or in the worst case a Depression. We need more rains. Vardah has brought much needed inflow into the Chennai lakes but we need more. For Official wind speeds of Cyclone Vardah we have to wait for some more time. IMD Chennai HWSR recorded 110 km/hr while the pressure drop was huge at 975 mb. Based on pressure, it seems cyclone has made landfall as Very Severe Cyclonic storm itself. The rainfall particularly, the southern Chennai people would not the rains accompanied with winds in life time. In few hours Shollingallur - Guduvanchery - Kancheepuram belt recorded over 300 mm rainfall, this is one scary rainfall happened in South Chennai and add to that the winds, South Chennai will not forget the intensity of rains from the Eyewall bands of Cyclone Vardah so soon. See the precipitation accumulation. Widespread rains and very intense in south Chennai belt. Vellore too got good rains along with Tiruvannmalai boundary areas while Krishnagiri district got some heavy spell too.

Rain amounts from Vardah in mm (min 100 mm)

Sathyabama University (Shollinganallur) - 382

Katupakkam (Near SRM University) - 341

Vembakkam (near Kancheepuram) - 333,Kancheepuram - 280

Korattur Anaicut - 220,Chembarabakkam Lake - 210

Kalavai - 231,Chennai Airport - 203

Sriperumbudur - 170,Taramani - 165

Yercaud - 154 ,Alangayam - 150 

Tambaram - 140 ,Chennai City - 119

Thiruvalangadu - 118 ,Anjatti - 115 

Cholavaram - 110 ,Vellore - 108

Tiruvallur - 107 ,Red hills Lake - 106 

Cheyyar - 106,Ambur - 103 ,Avadi - 103

Chengalpattu - 102 ,Kandhili - 102

Poonamalle - 101 ,Kaveripakkam - 100 

Tiruttani - 100 ,Arani - 100 ,DGP Office - 100.

Rainfall from VSCS Vardah compiled by Vagarian Praneeth :

Thanks to both.

Estimate for 14th and 15th December:
Light rain is likely to occur in Goa and parts of South Konkan on Wednesday and Thursday. Light thunder showers likely in Coastal Karnataka also,

Posted Monday 12th Night:

"Vardah" crosses coast near Chennai on Monday Afternoon as a Severe Cyclonic storm wit winds at 100-110 kmph and very heavy rains in Chennai.
System will move West and wweaken into a Deep Depression by Tuesday morning, approaching Bangalore.
Heavy showers expected in Bangalore on Monday night and Tuesday. Day's high will be around 20c with about 40 mms on Tuesday.

Rains decreasing sharply in Chennai from Monday night.Meenambukam saw a high of 25.1c and measured 179 mms till 8.30 pm. Nungambakkam saw a high of 23.1c and 101 mms till 5.30 pm.

Sathyabama University measured 347 mms of rain and KVK Kattupakkam saw 314 mms.

Vardah moves Inland...Position as on Monday Night:

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 Posted Monday Noon:"Vardah", now about to cross the Land just North of Chennai...Centre of system is just about 50 kms East/North East of Chennai at 11.30 am. System is weakening, and the distinct "Eye" is getting covered with convective clouds. 

However, the Western segment  of the wall shows deep and heavy convection, resulting in very heavy downpours with gusty winds, gusts averaging around 65-70 kmph, in Chennai currently.
55 mms were recorded till 8.30 am..and another 60 mms till noon Monday.Current  temp 21.5c.


Posted 11th Sunday Night:

"Vardah" has moved Westwards since last reporting here. It now ( Sunday Night)lies at 13.1N and 82.5E, around 225 kms East of Chennai.
Current winds are estimated currently at 125-135 kmph. 

Latest Expectations: Likely to track Westwards along the edge of a deep layered Sub Tropical Ridge. Ridge is building westwards as mentioned yesterday.Will be crosing the North T.N./South A.P. coast 12th late morning.
At time of crossing, the system can weaken to a Cyclone status, with 80-90 kmph winds at core.
Very heavy rains expected in North Coastal T.N. and Southern A.P.

Chennai: Light rains have commenced in Chennai.
Very heavy Rainfall and winds in the 80-90 kmph range expected to lash the city from late Sunday night. Difficult to say, but we can estimate around 150-160 mms till Monday mid night.Very cool day.

Bangalore: Light rains on Monday evening. Tuesday: Overcast with showers. Day will be cold with the mercury not going over 20c.

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Posted 11th Sunday Evening 6 pm IST:

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm " Vardah" has moved West as aniticipated and is located 300 kms East of Chennai at 13.1N and 83.1E. 

Currently estimated pressure is 980 mb  and estimated core wind speeds are 125- 135 kmph. Winds are gusting to 150 kmph.

Latest Expectations:  Storm likely to weaken from Sunday evening, and tracking West, likely to cross North TN coast and adjoining South A.P. coast (close to Chennai) on 12th late morning.
On crossing, winds may reduce to 80-90 kmph. But, will remain a Cyclonic storm with potential danger of a cyclone.
System will track West, and reach Bangalore in about 24hrs (by 13th) as a depression/well marked Low.

Next brief progress report with expected rainfall in Chennai and Bangalore by Sunday 11 pm IST

Posted 10th Saturday Night:

"Vardah" a very severe cyclonic storm in the Bay at 13.2N and 86.3E...Sustained winds (1 minute average) estimated at 65 kts and gusting to 80 kts,and estimated core pressure at 985 mb.

One of the main factors that guide and steer the track of such storms is the Sub Tropical Ridge. Now, as a change, we see this ridge as deep layered, Also, the ridge is showing positive signs of extending towards West  into the Bay of Bengal. 

Latest Expectation: Thus, from the current NW track, "Vardah" will start tracking towards the West along the 15N line after 12hrs ( from this report).
Will start weakening in 24 hrs ( from Saturday Night period) and cross South A.P. coast on 12th December.

Chennai: Sunday cloudy and windy with about 10 mms of rain. Rains and winds increasing on Monday. Monday: Cool at 24c with overcast skies and very windy. Chennai can expect about 40 mms Sunday Mid night- Monday mid night.Decrease in rains from Tuesday.

Next Update on 11th Sunday at 6 pm IST

10 DEC 2016 ( EVENING ):

Severe Cyclone Vardah ,"I am in the bay ,getting the power by guzzling moisture ."

Peninsular India ," You suck the moisture and be on cloud nine ,for the time being my weather will be dry,sunny and fine ."


1) With severe Cyclone Vardah in the bay guzzling the moisture , the Indian peninsula has been rendered sunny,dry and lower than normal min temps have been recorded in the peninsular states and parts of central India (MP).

• Bijapur (Karnataka) has recorded min temp of 7.5 c today morning (10 degrees below normal).
• Adilabad (Telangana) has recorded min temp of 6 c today morning .
• Ahmadnagar (Maharashtra) / Rewa (MP) have recorded min temp of 5.6 c today morning.
• Betul / Umaria (MP) have recorded min temp of 6 c today morning .Yesterday, Damoh had recorded 4.4 c
• Anantapur (AP) has recorded min temp of 12.7 c today morning .

Coastal regions :

• Valpoi AWS(Interior Goa) has recorded min temp of 13.2 c today morning.
• Chennai AP(Tamilnadu) has recorded min temp of 19.5 c today morning.
• Palghar AWS (Mumbai region) has recorded min temp of 11.7 c today morning.

!! Mumbai SCZ min temp (15.7 c) was lower than that of Bikaner , Jaisalmer, Barmer (Rajasthan)..The desert state is pretty warmer (min temps at some locations 7 c above normal) this time of the year !!

2) The dry weather has caused significant swings in day and night temps right upto the coast, with Vengurla (coastal Maharashtra) recording 20 c daily range .Valpoi's (Interior Goa) daily temp range was over 22 c.

• Most places in the interior peninsula have recorded daily temp swings of over 20 c , with the semi-arid city of Ahmadnagar (Maharashtra) recording daily temp swing of over 25 c .

Refer the map below

3) As severe Cyclone Vardah will approach the east coast (for prediction refer the post of Rajesh sir below) , the associated cloudiness is expected to increase the min temps of peninsular India in the coming days.

 4) Many cities in Maharashtra have recorded below 10 c min temps.Refer the map below of Maharashtra and surrounding areas (click and enlarge for better view..best viewed on smartphone)

 (Source for Badlapur : Abhijit Modak's private readings)

 

Posted Friday 9th Night:

Cyclone "Vardah" latest position is 12.1N and 89.7 E, having moved NW. Estimated sustained winds speed is 45 kts and gusting to 55 kts. Deep convection (heavy rains ) is now seen West and North-West of the circulation centre. Will continued to be steered by the Sub Tropical Ridge, it will track NW.

Latest Expectations: As it enters favourable conditions, it will continue to intensify. But from 11th morning, it will encounter dry air and increasing shear....and hence will stop its intensification and decrease in strength. Winds speed will reduce, and may be around 35 kts on crossing land. Should be crossing land around 15N -16N by 12th December.


Posted Thursday 8th December Night:

#BB-18, let us now call it Cyclone "Vardah", is located at 11.6N and 91.8E. Having an estimated core wind speed of 45 knts, its core pressure is estimated at 995 mb. Very prominent convection ( very heavy precipitation) seen North of the Centre of the system. 

Expected to strengthen further and track NW.

Latest expectation: Expected to hasten a bit now and can hit A.P. coast at around 16N, South of Vizag as early as 11th December.
Will Chennai get the rains ?

Next report on 9th Friday Night.

Posted 6th December Night:

# BB-18 showing rapid movement and development. Convective bands have appeared to the North and East of a well formed Low level circulation. Thus developed into a Depression. Cloud banding steadily becoming prominent. Centre of circulation approximately at 9.2N and 91.5E. 
System will track NW. As per indications today, will track towards North A.P.( Vizag) Coast and may cross the coastline by around 10th evening. Cyclone strength possible. 
Seems it will by-pass Chennai ?

Rainfall in Andaman Islands till now from BB-18 as compiled by Pradeep John.

Dense fog likely in Parts of NCR, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar next 3 mornings.


Posted 5th December Monday:

# BB-18, a Well Marked Low, is currently at 5N and 98E. The system tracks W/NW initially, and soon has a potential to develop in favourable conditions.Currently it has an elongated low level circulation, which will concise as it strengthens.
Seems as of now, will track NW till it reached 87E-90E region. 

The strength and exact location of the WD coming in the North regions on the 10th will depend where and how the WD and its associated upper height tilt is located.
As of now, judging the BB-18 and upper level trough in the North West regions of the sub continent, the effect of WD may be possible in Kashmir and H.P. only and in extreme North Pakistan. 


BB-17 has moved into the East Central Arabian Sea area.

Posted 3rd December Saturday:

# BB-18 is still to form. Slow on the schedule mentioned yesterday, There is an UAC over the expected region (of BB-18 formation). UAC will descend to form a Low on 4th around the location 7N and 92E. 
Observing the parameters, and the steering Sub Tropical Ridge, we (today) see the track, as the system on formation, heading towards the A.P. coast. The conditions favour the formation of a Cyclone on approaching the East Coast of India.


BB-17 has emerged in the Arabian Sea. A Low is seen over the Lakshdweep region.An associated UAC also prevails.

Posted Friday Night (2nd December):

# BB-18 (Low) likely to form on 3rd around location 7N and 92E. Initial study of parameters show track as NW towards A.P. coast. Again, synoptic conditions indicate further strengthening and high possibility of Cyclone formation on reaching coast. At present it seems BB-18 will cross coast after about 5 days.
Follow BB-18 on Vagaries...Rare occasion when Vagaries has announced the possibility of Cyclone formation before system is formed.
Next update: Saturday Night (3rd) at 11 pm IST.

BB-17 is now stationed in interior T.N. as a Low. Upper air trough associated with it is tilting towards South West.

Chennai got 39.5 mms and Chennai AP measured 35 mms in 24 hrs as on Friday morning.Vagaries estimate was around 50 mms.
Some Thursday Day temps and Friday morning Lows: Adirampatanma saw a high of 21.5c, and a Low of 18.9c.
Karaikal saw a high of 22.6c and a low of 22c.
Kodaikanal saw a high of 13.4c and low was 10.7c.
Many towns in TN saw a cool day at around 23c, with the range between day and night of around 2c.

Posted Thursday Night ...

True to its expectations, BB-17 is crossing into Tamil Nadu on Thursday night as a Depression.
Vagaries has never mentioned a Cyclone from the start of its tracking BB-17 8 days ago. And also clarified yesterday that IMD and International Models are mentioning a Cyclone. 

Chennai received 30 mms on Thursday in 12 hrs ended 5.30 pm. 50 mms were estimated here in 24 hrs.

BB-17 is a Low level Circulation ( Depression) crossing the TN coast tonite. The estimated winds around the circulation is 30 knts. Vertical shear is not favourable for the circulation.
It is not showing any associated deep convection.

Let us start the chase for BB-18 ...Likely to form around the same location as BB-17. 

BB-18 could be more effective for TN...