Rain Frenzy around Mumbai continues into Saturday Morning....
Mumbai was predicted to get average between 60-80 mms for Friday...actual received Map below:

 and Ghat and other stations around the region map (below)...

Posting Fresh Report for next few days Saturday evening...

Posted Thursday Night: Mumbai Follow Up:

Due to a slight weakening of the divergence in the winds at the 200 levels, there could be some delay in the formation of the expected UAC over the Mumbai region.Not much though, Heavy showers expected Thursday Night and...
Friday will see showers post noon, and may still measure upto 60-80 mms on Friday. 
Saturday will be seeing heavy rains , again potential for flooding. With strong winds, Mumbai may see around 150 - 170 mms on Saturday.

Pune, getting fairly frequent showers on Friday (around 35 mms) with the day around 23c.


On Saturday, heaviest rains spreading Northwards along coast upto Gujarat coast.Surat may get heavy showers.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted Thursday Evening...
We had mentioned the formation of an east-West trough thru Mumbai going towards the interior Maharashtra region. This formed on Thursday, resulting in an initial commencement of rains around Mumbai.
Some rainfall amounts from 8.30 am -5.30 pm on Thursday: Mumbai Colaba 20 mms, Vagaries 55 mms and Mumbai Scruz 76 mms.

Pune was cloudy with occasional rains, 4mms, the day's high being 24.2c (AP) and 24.9c (City). In Marathwada, Parbhani recorded 47 mms in the same period.....more on the situation tonite 11 pm IST

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Follow up to Mumbai Rains : Posted Wednesday Night:
A Brief Explanation:
On schedule, the Arabian Sea UAC at 65E, and now its on stream to form an Upper Air Trough from This UAC to theUAC of BB-11...East-West Upper Trough. And the 200 level divergence will help in the formation of UAC around Mumbai by Friday...So,

Expect thunder showers on Thursday around Mumbai. Mumbai can get about 40-50 mms on Thursday, increasing substantially on Friday to 140-160 mms. Watch out for flooding.
Stormy Saturday expected.

As mentioned, rains will wet Pune next 3 days , with thunder.Around 25 mms on Thursday and 30-40 mms on Friday.
Pune must be ready for cool days at 23c.

Posted Tuesday Night:

Mumbai Special:Wet and windy Spell ahead !
Starting Thursday 15th September, next 4 days are going to be very wet and windy for Mumbai and all surrounding townships.

Thursday 15th will be the commencement of the wet spell, being cloudy with a few showers. 

Showers start increasing in intensity from early Friday 16th morning, and the day will see heavy rains . Watch out for flooding also. Vagaries would expect between 150-170 mms in 24 hrs (Friday). Fairly frequent showers with thunder.

Rains continue into Saturday 17th, with frequent intermittent showers in the day. Again, another 150 mms expected in next 24 hrs.Watch out for flooding.

Heavy rains on Sunday 18th, though less then intensity of Friday/Saturday. will add to flooding.Sunday will see let up only after evening.

As the reason and cause for this expected heavy rains is an embedded UAC in an East-West Upper Air trough, its outreach may be restricted. Heavy rains will roughly cover the region round 100 kms North and South of Mumbai along the coast, and around 50 kms inland.
The ghats between Mumbai and Pune region will also experience heavy rains, along with the stations in Mahableshwar and Koyna regions. May get more than 300 mms. in 2 days.

Pune will also witness a wet spell,from Thursday thru Sunday. Thursday will be rainy and wet (40-50 mms), but The peak rainfall (of around 80-100 mms ) will be on Sunday.Cold days ahead the weekend, with the days not exceeding 23c.

Posted on Sunday 11th Night:
Vagaries works out  a Medium/Long Term Forecast for its reference thrice a week .Long Term Forecast is hardly ever put up on Vagaries due to uncertainty and varying changes., but 
Judging form the anxiety about the rains, Vagaries is today deviating and putting up a "rare Medium Term forecast".(Subject to revision).

1. South West Monsoon likely to withdraw from West Rajasthan and Sindh by 13th September. Temperatures likely to rise in Sindh.

2. 12th Monday - 14th Wednesday, rains likely in Vidharbh, South Chattisgarh, Odisha. Kashmir and HP get rains from a WD.

3. From Thursday 15th/ Friday 16th-Sunday 18th ...Rains likely in Interior Maharashtra, Konkan, NI Karnataka, Southern Peninsula, Central India (M.P.) and Southern U.P. Substantial increase in rains in Madhya Maharashtra (Pune/Nasik) and Goa, Konkan (Mumbai and towns around).
Thunder showers in Mumbai Friday-Sunday.

4. From Saturday 17th, for a copule of days, rains in Saurashtra and rest Gujarat except Kutch. Rains increasing Saturday/Sunday in West Bengal/Odisha.

This will reduce the All India Monsoon Deficit after 20th September....Current deficit -5%

Mumbai Lakes Position: 97% full, and having storage of 1405 Mcum out of full capacity of 1441 Mcum. Translating, we have 1 year water stock, i.e. upto 15th September 2017. Lakes Info credit Vagarian Jayesh Mehta.

Posted Saturday 10th Night:

BB-11 is expected to form on 11th as expected. It may track W/NW into Telengana and clouding in Western segment will bring rains to interior Mah next week. Rainfall expected in A.P./Telengana and Vidharbh next 2 days. It may track NE later and weaken further...

Conditions for Monsoon withdrawal may commence from West Rajasthan and adjoining South East Sindh from 13th September.

Chennai received heavy rains on Saturday, and between 5.30 pm and 8.30 pm, 52 mms were recorded at Minambakkam.
Hyderabad received 8 mms till 8.30 pm IST Saturday.

Southern Indian Peninsula Deficit at -13%:
The monsoon axis has remained in the far north, or more North than normal for a very long time now, almost a month (or more). When this happens, naturally, the seasonal low in the Kutch region becomes weak, or also moves North.
Now, as i have stated, the off shore trough along the west coast in monsoon season "pivots" and is anchored from the seasonal low in Kutch. If this gets weak, the off shore trough (west coast) weakens also. This has caused weak and deficient rains along Karnataka Coast (-31%) and Kerala (-31%) this year. 
Also, the position of axis (in North) prevented the formation of a trough or LWD in the Central Peninsula region this year. We have not heard of a trough forming North -South this year from any system positioned in MP, even though BB-6,7 and 8 went thru MP. With the syetems from the Bay, only the Eastern side of axis came Southwards, while the Western end remained far North.The Arabian Sea and Bay sytems are also "instigated" by favourable MJOs.
Thus South Interior Peninsula got less rains...NI Karnataka 0%,SI Karnatak -13%, 
Though Interior Mah (Maratwada -2% and Madhya Mah +7%) got rains from the BBs over MP. 

Posted Thursday Night:

1. Low pressure moves into the Nepal region, and disintegrates in the hills. Heavy showers expected in Kathmandu on Friday thru Sunday. Can expect 120-150 mms in 3 days cumulative.Heavy rains expected in Sikkim and Himalayan West Bengal.

2. In the Tuesday Post, we had mentioned of BB-11 forming off the AP coast. BB-11 form around the date, and as mentioned , enhance rainfall in the Northern and Central Peninsula. Weekend showers expected in Hyderabad (India). 

3. On Thursday, UAC over Gujarat region is now located over South coastal Gujarat and adjoining regions. Latest rain amounts from South coastal Gujarat: Jalalpor (dist Navsari) 14, Pardi (dist Valsad) 14, Choryasi (dist Surat) 12, Navsari (dist Navsari) 10, Gandevi (dist Navsari) 8, Palsana (dist Surat) 7, Vapi (dist Valsad) 7, Madhbun (dist Dadara & Nagar Haveli) 6, Valsad (dist Valsad) 6, Daman (dist Daman) 5, Chikhli (dist Navsari) 5.

Mumbai: Showing moderate increase in rains next week.

Lakes supplying water to Mumbai are now 95% full at 13.86 Mcum. Translating into 365 days ...1 year ...of water available !
Rainfall till date: Modak Sagar 2542 mms, Tansa 2217 mms, Vihar 3710 mms,Tulshi 3268 mms, Upper Vaitarna 2334 mms, Bhatsa 2202 mms, Middle Vairtarna 2392 mms.

Mumbai Scruz 2216 mms and Mumbai Colaba 1792 mms.

Posted Tuesday Evening:

1.As the Low pressure moves North towards Eastern Nepal, rainfall decreases  ( Wednesday) in GWB. Rainfall with heavy falls restricted to Bihar, Himalayan Bengal, Sikkim and East Nepal.

2. As an weak UAC forms over Saurahtra, isolated showers expected in Saurashtra on Wednesday/Thursday. Showers expected in South Gujarat coast and North Konkan also.  

3. A new Low (BB-11) may form off the AP coast around 11th September. Rainfall may then increase in AP, Telengana, Vidharbh and NI Karnataka.

4. South West Monsoon may withdraw from Sindh and West Rajasthan by around 10th September. Will update on this again on 8th .


The expected Monday/Tuesday heavy rains in Bihar, Jharkhand and W.Bengal:Heavy Rains in cms:
BIHAR: TEKARI 26,GAYA AERO 24, BODH GAYA 20, BIKRAM 17, KURATHA 17, KOILWAR 16, KINJAR 16, MAKHDUMPUR 15.

JHARKHAND: JAMSHEDPUR AERO 16, MAITHON 10, PANCHET 8.
GANGETIC WEST BENGAL:  PURIHANSA 17, KHARIDWAR 15, HARINKHOLA 14, KOLKATA (ALIPORE) 13, PHULBERIA 12, ASANSOL(CWC) 11
ASANSOL 10

City Forecasts for 7th and 8th September: 
Mumbai: Next 2 days will be partly cloudy with warm sunshine. A few showers in some parts.

Karachi will be windy, with west/south west winds blowing and partly cloudy.

Kathmandu: Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will see some heavy showers for Kathmandu. Around 30 mms/day next 2 days..Heavy showers with thunder expected. 

Posted Sunday 4th September, Night:

This blog, normally regularly updated, has always kept you posted with the latest and responded to your queries well in time and systematically. Due to travel and time restriction, I have not been able to devote my attention towards timely updates of Vagaries in the last 7 days. Apologise for the same and hope to keep readers well informed and up-to-date with the latest.

The Low pressure over Gangetic Bengal is persisting and bringing showers to the surrounding Eastern States of India. 
Odisha received heavy pounding as on 4th Morning. Deogaon-218mm ,Jamadarpalli-196mm ,Lahunipara-183mm ,Chandanpur-173mm ,Padmapur-170mm ,Patnagarh-160mm ,Burla-156mm ,Sambalpur -150mm ,Binika-128mm ,Hirakud-121mm ,Bangiriposh-112mm ,Belgon-111mm ,Bolangir-104mm ,Sonepur-100mm (Amounts from Mitan).
Rains may decrease in Odisha from Monday.
Received Rainfall Map of Saturday/Sunday:

Low Pressure will prevail on Monday in the Bengal region and move North into Bengal State on Tuesday.This may merge in the Monsoon Axis, now close to Himalayas, by Wednesday. 

Forecast: Heavy rains on Monday and Tuesday in Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar, and adjoining Eastern Nepal.Isolated heavy showers may continue for another 2 days along the East Coastal regions due to the extended off shore trough from the Low.Decreasing rainfall in Odisha.
Next 3 days, Light showers likely in Konkan and Maharashtra Ghat stations (1-3 cms)..No meaningful rains elsewhere. 

Due to persisting Seasonal Low in the West Rajashthan/ Sindh region, and non occurrence of the Anti Cyclone in the region (due to the Seasonal formation), the withdrawal of the South West Monsoon cannot be announced. Though the 200 level jet streams have started showing favourable signs for withdrawal, I would wait to announce withdrawal from Central Sindh /West Rajasthan till another 4/5 days at least.

Estimate for Monday/Tuesday and Wednesday:
Mumbai: Next 3 days will see partly cloudy skies, with few passing showers in parts of city. Showers will not be persisting. Daily around 5-10 mms of rain.

Pune: Partly cloudy, but getting warm in the day. Clearing by night, will slight fall in night temperatures by 2c.

Kolkata: Intermittent showers and chances of a few heavy showers in some parts. Around 20 mms /day.