The heat is certainly being felt in Mumbai ! Much against expectations and forecasts, a heat wave has spraed along the coast of Maharashtra and Gujarat. The IMD map of the maximum temperatures on the 5th. clearly indiactes the "red" regions of extreme heat! It is December, and the maximum day temperatures along the coast of Maharashtra and all of Gujarat is around 35-36c, much above the normal!
The highest at Mumbai on the 5th. was the highest in Asia too, at 37.7c. Incidently, this is the highest ever recorded at Santa Cruz in December!In Asia, Makkah was next at 37c!The list shows the top hottest places in Asia on the 5th.

Mumbai / Santacruz Airport (India) 38°

Makkah (Saudi Arabia) 37°

Goa / Panjim Airport (India) 36°

Surat (India) 36°

Rajkot (India) 36°

Ratnagiri (India) 36.

On the 5th,Mumbai Colaba was 36.4c, and the highest everfor December at Colaba was only marginally higher at 36.6c.
This heat has belied all forecasts by any model or forecasting module.

Meanwhile, the deep depression in the bay was today,6th, at 450kms east of Sri Lanka.At this time,a north-westward drift with some northward component is indicated.Some GFS models, however, seems to "loose" 07B as if it were dissipating the system.
I feel,the system is expected to cross the coast of T.N. and Puducherry, just skirting the Lanka coast.Very heavy rains are expecetd in the next 2/3 days.
The system, with a core pressure at 996mb, has been numbered at 07B, and as it moves inland, heavy rains are forecasted for T.N. and Kerala.Inland,the system will be heading towards Cochin.Hence, rains will be restricted to T.N. and Kerala.


But,Sri Lanka is getting very heavy raiansince the 4th.due to 07B.The intensity of this rainfall is unusual for Sri Lanka at this time of year. Heavy rain is normally associated with the S.W. Monsoon, which runs from June until October, often leading to widespread floods. From December through February the country experiences drier weather, with clear skies and little rain

As mentioned in the last blog, the approaching W.D. is expected over north India by the 6th. and pulling of moisture and rain clouds is possible from the Arabian Sea. Hence, some rain on the 7th. can be expected in Rajasthan and parts of western Saurshtra and Kutch.Nothern plains will get their winter rains from the 6th. for a couple of days.

Taking a review of the November weather, it seems winter has eluded most of the regions of the sub continent for the month.During the month of November, the temperatures hav been upto 3c above normal in most of North India, Western regions of India, and in the Central areas. Rest has been normal, except, as the above map shows, a small patch of below normal area in the south (due to heavy rains).

In spite of 2/3 W.Ds,in the latter half of November,and most of Kashmir region getting its first early snows,the temperatures rose back to the near normal levels on the passing of the W.D.The minimum temperatures in the plains,that is Punjab and Haryana regions,are around the 8-10c levels,a little above normal, and Delhi is slightly above normal at 25-26c in the day.-The Kashmir region has shown signs of dropping night temperatures in the first 2 days of December-Srinagar has dipped to -2c and Leh to -12c !
Another W.D. is expected to cross north India from the 5th. With a trough (aloft) extending southwards from the W.D., some rains can be expected along the west Gujarat coast due to this on the 5/6th.Also, the northern states should get moderate rains from the 5/6th.

In central India, and Maharashtra/Gujarat, the incursion of moisture from cyclone Nisha, and 2 depressions from the bay moving inland,and resurfacing in the Arabian Sea, has resulted in light to medium rains. Some stations, like Pune airport recieved heavy rain of 6cms of rain on the last day of the month.Many stations in Maharashtra had daily rains between 3-10mms between the 23rd. and 30th. of November. Mumbai too has had cloudy and muggy weather, with light drizzles in the last week. Naturally, this prevented the temperatures from rising, and created a "heat Wave" in the Konkan region in the last week of the month. Mumbai was unsually hot in November, with the days at 36c almost throughout the last 2 weeks of the month.

As a result of these sytems from the bay, the south was dumped with good rains.The north-east monsoon suddenly got reactivated and the deficit was covered . With another low now ready in the south bay,as on the 3rd., more rains are expected in the southern most regions of T.N. and Kerala upto the 7th. A combination of an easterly wave and a low presuure system is expected to cross the south T.N. coast around the 5th. Heavy rains can commence in the exterem south after the 5th.for a couple of days.
This could be the last spell of rains of the current season for the south.

Looking at the above scenario, I expect,wintry condtions to resume in the north from the first week of December.The central regions, that is, M.P,Maharashtra and Gujarat can expect temperatures to start falling,finally, around the end of the first week.

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The easterly wave from the bay has produced good amounts of rain in the southern peninsula of India in the last 5/6 days, and as expected, the embedded low, still holds on to a forecast by models for the formation of a low in the southern bay around the 25th.The rains will continue till the approaching system pours more rain in the regions it covers.

The cloudiness in the south and prevailing south-easterlies,has resulted in a "heat wave in November" along the west coast of India, especially the northern parts including Mumbai.Mumbai, is unusually warm and hot. The highs in Mumbai during the last two days is hovering around 36c.while, for the information, the highest ever in November for Mumbai is 37.4c Ratnagiri, at 37c on the 22nd., was the hottest spot in Asia !!Meanwhile, normal hotspots like Dubai was 31c and other spots in the gulf were around 31-33c. THe IMD map above shows the heat wave along the northern west coast.
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Tropical Cyclone 05B, or Khai Muk, moved inland through A.P. and quickly moved westwards towards South Maharashtra, and, as the IMD streamline image above shows, has now entered the Arabian Sea as a low pressure. But not much should be expected from this weak system now, as it will dissolve in the "not so warm" waters of the sea.

Maharashtra did get its expected share of scattered rains. Nanded got 10mms and Mahableshwar recieved 15mms,suddenly cooling the hill station down to a max. of 18.6c, while several other towns in Maratwada and south Maharashtra, including Goa and Konkan had rains between 3-8mms.Mimbai had a light drizzle on Tuesday night.

Now, due to the sudden incursion of moisture, the sporadic rains, though weak, will continue in interior Maharashtra till Friday, after which, the dry spell of winter will resume in the region.

A strongish easterly wave off the T.N. coast (seen in the steamline map) is expected to bring fairly good rains in coastal and inland T.N., south coastal A.P.from the 19th. The E.Wave will have a low embedded in it, which should increase the easterly current (and rains) around the 20th.
Some "monsoon like " conditions will be seen in the south now. Contiunity of fairly good rains are expected in these regions till the 25th.

Tropical depression Noul hit southeastern Vietnam on Monday, bringing heavy rains and flooding, in the tenth storm to hit the country this year.The storm, which was downgraded from a tropical cyclone as it made landfall near the coastal city of Nha Trang.
Noul has been weakening rapidly over land during the past day, and is forecast to dissipate fully over Cambodia later today, before emerging in the Gulf of Thailand.

Around the 25th.ECMRWF has predicted the formation of a depression in south bay. This is the maturing of the embedded low in the E.Wave.It is forecasted the depression can strengthen into a deep depression, or even a cyclone by the 27th.

Meanwhile, winter has made its mark in the northern sub continent. The minimum temperatures have gone down to -10c in Leh, and -8c in Quetta, with several stations in north Kashmir seeing -2c to -5c.The plains of Punjab are now in 8c range.
With another W.D. approaching the extreme north,more rain/snow can be expected in the higher reaches in a day or two.

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Writing after 7 days, I was waiting for the low I mentioned in my prevoius blog, to appear. Well, it has certainly "appeared"' and swiftly swung into action, and has already become Tropical Cyclone 05B. As on 14th. night, TC05B was at 225NM north-eastof Chennai. Central core pressure is at 989mb,and expected to strenghten further.Now,it will steer clear of the ridge,to cross the Andhra coast near Vijaywada by the night of the 15th.Naturally, very heavy rains and very squally weather is to be expected off the Andhra coast today and tomorrow. The effect on the north Tamil Nadu coast will also be felt in the form of heavy rains in Chennai on the 15th./16th.
Interior A.P. will be affected the most,and some coastal towns in A.P.expected to record upto 200mms of rain in 24hrs.

Now,as the system moves inland, some interesting rainfall pattern is expected. After the system has covered the whole of A.P. with rains, Marathwada and north interior Karnatak can get some rains by the 17th. South Maharashtra, including Pune and Mahableshwar, can recieve rains around the 17th./18th and the "northern" ghats, meaning Lonavla, can recieve rains on the 18th. But the system will fizzle out quickly after moving inland, hence the Maharashtra rains will last only for a day or two.Mumbai has a 50-50 chance of some thunder cloud drifting over on the 18th.

In the northern regions, the W.D.mentioned has poured good rains/snow in Kashmir, and northern areas of Pakistan. Srinagar had 35mms of its first snow this season, with the day temperature not rising above 1.6c on the 14th.And also, in its moving away, a cold front has covered the "rear' of the W.D. Lows of -8 to -9c have been recorded in western regions of Pakistan on 14th.
Hence, I certainly expect a cold wave over Kashmir, H.P., Punjab, north Rajasthan,Delhi and Haryana after the 16th.In Delhi, minimum temperatures can go down to 10c, and places in Punjab will see 8c in the next few nights.

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No rains period continues in the entire sub continent region. The reason is a dominant "high" in the 500-700hpa heights, stagnant over the north-west India areas. Resultantly, there is above normal warmth over the region, with places in Sindh and rajasthan recording upto 37c, in 2nd. week of November !
Nights are just about getting a bit cool, with the plains in Pakistan recording lows in the 8-10c range, and the northern plains of India recording between 10-12c, still, above normal..However, the southern half of India remains around normal. Srinagar reached 1.9c yesterday(6th.) and Leh was at -5c.Both are around normal.

Clearly seen in the IMD maps above.

We now have to look out for: - The "high" to shift eastwards, toenable some rain to commence in the south.
- The WD to move eastwards along the Kashmir region to produce some rain/snow over the northern areas.
- To wiat for the formation of a low, expected middle of next week, in the bay. Could later become a depression.

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The temperatures in the sub continent show no signs of the winter lows. The days and nights are still above the normal. Another WD is awaited for the actual winter to arrive in the region. The IMD maps above show the extent of the above normal temperatures.

Meanwhile the cyclonic storm "Rashmi" weakened and after passing through the north-eastern states of India, crossed into Tibet region.A massive snowstorm followed.
The snowstorm event was attributed to "Rashmi" which developed over the Bay of Bengal and drifted north. Heavy rain associated with the cyclone quickly turned into heavy snow across the Tibetan region as it collided with a cold air mass. Although heavy snow is not an uncommon event in Tibet, a snowstorm this severe was fairly unusual this early in the season.
Heavy snow fell for more than 36 consecutive hours earlier in the week averaging snow coverage of 1.5 meters, with drifts up to three meters in places. Many people were either frozen to death or crushed by buildings which collapsed from the sheer weight of the snow.

Meanwhile,there is a weak sign of an easterly wave bringing some rain in TN and south AP from the 5th.The rains are expected in TN for about 3/4 days, before drying out again. ECMRWF expects the next low in the bat around the 16th. Not much rain before that.
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