Saturday, November 15, 2008




Writing after 7 days, I was waiting for the low I mentioned in my prevoius blog, to appear. Well, it has certainly "appeared"' and swiftly swung into action, and has already become Tropical Cyclone 05B. As on 14th. night, TC05B was at 225NM north-eastof Chennai. Central core pressure is at 989mb,and expected to strenghten further.Now,it will steer clear of the ridge,to cross the Andhra coast near Vijaywada by the night of the 15th.Naturally, very heavy rains and very squally weather is to be expected off the Andhra coast today and tomorrow. The effect on the north Tamil Nadu coast will also be felt in the form of heavy rains in Chennai on the 15th./16th.
Interior A.P. will be affected the most,and some coastal towns in A.P.expected to record upto 200mms of rain in 24hrs.

Now,as the system moves inland, some interesting rainfall pattern is expected. After the system has covered the whole of A.P. with rains, Marathwada and north interior Karnatak can get some rains by the 17th. South Maharashtra, including Pune and Mahableshwar, can recieve rains around the 17th./18th and the "northern" ghats, meaning Lonavla, can recieve rains on the 18th. But the system will fizzle out quickly after moving inland, hence the Maharashtra rains will last only for a day or two.Mumbai has a 50-50 chance of some thunder cloud drifting over on the 18th.

In the northern regions, the W.D.mentioned has poured good rains/snow in Kashmir, and northern areas of Pakistan. Srinagar had 35mms of its first snow this season, with the day temperature not rising above 1.6c on the 14th.And also, in its moving away, a cold front has covered the "rear' of the W.D. Lows of -8 to -9c have been recorded in western regions of Pakistan on 14th.
Hence, I certainly expect a cold wave over Kashmir, H.P., Punjab, north Rajasthan,Delhi and Haryana after the 16th.In Delhi, minimum temperatures can go down to 10c, and places in Punjab will see 8c in the next few nights.

kapadias@gmail.com

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