Thursday, December 04, 2008
Taking a review of the November weather, it seems winter has eluded most of the regions of the sub continent for the month.During the month of November, the temperatures hav been upto 3c above normal in most of North India, Western regions of India, and in the Central areas. Rest has been normal, except, as the above map shows, a small patch of below normal area in the south (due to heavy rains).
In spite of 2/3 W.Ds,in the latter half of November,and most of Kashmir region getting its first early snows,the temperatures rose back to the near normal levels on the passing of the W.D.The minimum temperatures in the plains,that is Punjab and Haryana regions,are around the 8-10c levels,a little above normal, and Delhi is slightly above normal at 25-26c in the day.-The Kashmir region has shown signs of dropping night temperatures in the first 2 days of December-Srinagar has dipped to -2c and Leh to -12c !
Another W.D. is expected to cross north India from the 5th. With a trough (aloft) extending southwards from the W.D., some rains can be expected along the west Gujarat coast due to this on the 5/6th.Also, the northern states should get moderate rains from the 5/6th.
In central India, and Maharashtra/Gujarat, the incursion of moisture from cyclone Nisha, and 2 depressions from the bay moving inland,and resurfacing in the Arabian Sea, has resulted in light to medium rains. Some stations, like Pune airport recieved heavy rain of 6cms of rain on the last day of the month.Many stations in Maharashtra had daily rains between 3-10mms between the 23rd. and 30th. of November. Mumbai too has had cloudy and muggy weather, with light drizzles in the last week. Naturally, this prevented the temperatures from rising, and created a "heat Wave" in the Konkan region in the last week of the month. Mumbai was unsually hot in November, with the days at 36c almost throughout the last 2 weeks of the month.
As a result of these sytems from the bay, the south was dumped with good rains.The north-east monsoon suddenly got reactivated and the deficit was covered . With another low now ready in the south bay,as on the 3rd., more rains are expected in the southern most regions of T.N. and Kerala upto the 7th. A combination of an easterly wave and a low presuure system is expected to cross the south T.N. coast around the 5th. Heavy rains can commence in the exterem south after the 5th.for a couple of days.
This could be the last spell of rains of the current season for the south.
Looking at the above scenario, I expect,wintry condtions to resume in the north from the first week of December.The central regions, that is, M.P,Maharashtra and Gujarat can expect temperatures to start falling,finally, around the end of the first week.