Tuesday, November 18, 2008





Tropical Cyclone 05B, or Khai Muk, moved inland through A.P. and quickly moved westwards towards South Maharashtra, and, as the IMD streamline image above shows, has now entered the Arabian Sea as a low pressure. But not much should be expected from this weak system now, as it will dissolve in the "not so warm" waters of the sea.

Maharashtra did get its expected share of scattered rains. Nanded got 10mms and Mahableshwar recieved 15mms,suddenly cooling the hill station down to a max. of 18.6c, while several other towns in Maratwada and south Maharashtra, including Goa and Konkan had rains between 3-8mms.Mimbai had a light drizzle on Tuesday night.

Now, due to the sudden incursion of moisture, the sporadic rains, though weak, will continue in interior Maharashtra till Friday, after which, the dry spell of winter will resume in the region.

A strongish easterly wave off the T.N. coast (seen in the steamline map) is expected to bring fairly good rains in coastal and inland T.N., south coastal A.P.from the 19th. The E.Wave will have a low embedded in it, which should increase the easterly current (and rains) around the 20th.
Some "monsoon like " conditions will be seen in the south now. Contiunity of fairly good rains are expected in these regions till the 25th.

Tropical depression Noul hit southeastern Vietnam on Monday, bringing heavy rains and flooding, in the tenth storm to hit the country this year.The storm, which was downgraded from a tropical cyclone as it made landfall near the coastal city of Nha Trang.
Noul has been weakening rapidly over land during the past day, and is forecast to dissipate fully over Cambodia later today, before emerging in the Gulf of Thailand.

Around the 25th.ECMRWF has predicted the formation of a depression in south bay. This is the maturing of the embedded low in the E.Wave.It is forecasted the depression can strengthen into a deep depression, or even a cyclone by the 27th.

Meanwhile, winter has made its mark in the northern sub continent. The minimum temperatures have gone down to -10c in Leh, and -8c in Quetta, with several stations in north Kashmir seeing -2c to -5c.The plains of Punjab are now in 8c range.
With another W.D. approaching the extreme north,more rain/snow can be expected in the higher reaches in a day or two.

kapadias@gmail.com

No comments: