Very cold and freezing temperatures. That is what the mid east has experianced in the last week. The system has poured freezing rain and even snow( Baghdad for the first time ever), and some places have even recieved their annual quota of precipitation. Jim has given some very interesting figures and the record lows of the region from his data bank ( Accuweather).

"The next W.D. will be there middle of next week", well, this estimate from my last blog is exactly on schedule.
The fairly strong W.D., arriving from the west, is today pouring rain over Dubai, 28mms till 8pm. local time, and all over the north Oman coast. At Muscat, it has started to rain at 8 pm. local time. The position of the system as on 11.30 pm IST today is shown in this image.
Some areas in Pakistan have also recieved rain today. Now, more rain and some heavy snow is expected over north Pakistan and north India from tomorrow. Due to this development, the temperatures have shown an upward trend, and are above normal by as much as 6c in some places.
The system, cutting across Saudi Arabia and through U.A.E., is now moving towards the sub continent due to the low aloft over the Iran/Pakistan and North India regions.

The forecast for the current week for India will be:
- Good snowfall in the upper and mid reaches of Kashmir, H.P., and Uttaranchal during 16/17/18th.
- Fairly good rains inPunjab, Haryana, and N.Rajasthan during 16/17th.
-Medium rains over Delhi, East U.P. and North M.P. on 17/18th.
-Cold conditions over all of the northern regions and Gujarat and N.Maharashtra from 19th.( cold in Mumbai at the weekend). From the 19th. the winds over the central and northern regions will be strong and northerly.
- cold wave conditions from 19th.
- south and rest of India will be dry. South will be dry due to the strong W.D. preventing any further sytem or wave from bringing rain to the region.

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Manali


Gulmarg

The upper reaches in the Kashmir valley, including Gulmarg, experienced fresh snowfall during the past 24 hours. About 1 to 5 feet of snow had accumulated on the ski slopes at Gulmarg, Affarwat and Khilanmarg. Srinagar and the adjoining areas also experienced snowfall for about half an hour in the morning on Wednessday.

The effect of the strong W.D. was more in H.P. The tribal Kinnaur in particular was experiencing heavy snowfall with Rackong Peo receiving 105 cm of snowfall for the past 36 hours. It was the heaviest since 1992 when 200 cm of snowfall was recorded in five days. Dhundi in Kullu recorded the maximum 110 cm of snowfall, followed by Solang Nullah 80 cm, Hatu Peak 75 cm, Reckong Peo 50 cm and Keylong 45 cm. Patsio recording the lowest temperature of - 7°C, followed by Keylong - 4.7°C and Kalpa - 2.5°C.

Manali experienced fresh snowfall, while the lower parts were lashed by rain. The entire upper Manali region has been covered with a thick blanket of snow.
The snowfall, which started on Wednessday evening, was still continuing and about 25 cm of snowfall was recorded in the town.

However, the W.D. has now breaking up in the high ranges ,and the rain/snow is expected to decrease. Since the temperatures all over the central and northern plains are now almost 3-5c above normal, I expect them to start dropping substantially by tomorrow.

As estimated, the strong n-e winds have pushed away possibilities of any meaningfull rain in the south, or the possibility of the W.D. travelling beyond the Himalayan range.

Now, the next W.D., on its way ,should hit north India by mid week next.

The W.D. has left Iran causing much damage and snow. Quoting BBC, "The heaviest snowfall in more than a decade has blanketed parts of Iran over the last few days, killing more than 20 people, with many more still missing. The snow caused a number of avalanches, with the build up of ice on the roads causing numerous traffic accidents. "
As per Jim's report in his blog, low temperatures have been the marked features of this system.
The max. temperature in Tehran yesterday was -4c and min. -11c.

Today the "monster storm", in Jim's words, has unleashed itself over Pakistan. Some heavy rain/snow figures of Pakistan today were:
Pattan=64, Chitral=56, Drosh=49, Balakot=45, Malamjaba=40, Muzaffarabad=38, Murree=38, Garidupata=37, Saidusharif=36. Days were exceptionally cold with Faisalabad at 14c as the day temperature, low for the region.

Tomorrow, Wednessday, the storm will be over north and north-west India. Subsequently, after 2 days, the skies will clear, and the temperatures will drop.

But, another W.D. is on its way. By Friday/Saturday, it will have affected the U.A.E. and Oman. The system is more south clinging, and is likely to run along the Sindh coast eastwards.
North India should be in the range by Sunday/Monday.

The first "feeble" W.D. has snowed off and broken of in the higher ranges of upper Kashmir region. The system has given a few spells of snow and rain in the northern most regions of India and central and north Pakistan. And the the temperatures have risen due to the cloudiness.
The second W.D. is now on its way.It being stronger, is expected to bring good rain and snow to Pakistan, almost the whole of it, from today. For India, as anticipated, the rains will start from Tuesday and will last for 2/3 days in the regions mentioned in my last write up. A cold wave will then follow in north, central and northern regions of the peninsula. Almost on schedule as per my last blog.

For the south, the easterly wave has broken up, and the ITCZ has now moved south, due to the cyclone in the Madagascar Sea.
This beautiful image shows it all ! the W.D., the "easterely wave" and the ITCZ with the cyclone embedded in it.

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The receding cold wave saw some really low temperatures in the last few nights.. Besides the temperatures mentioned in my last blog, a of the few notable lows were: Lodhi Gardens (Delhi) 1.3 degrees c, Awantipur (Kashmir) -9 degrees c, Jalandhar -2 degrees c and Nalliya (Gujarat) 2 degrees c.

With the advent of the anticipated W.D., the cold wave conditions in north India have abated. Suddenly with the emerging cloud cover, the night temperatures will rise by 4-5 degrees c overnight. Extensive cloud ccver is seen over Pakistan today, where the rain/snow has commenced, and Srinagar has experianced snow today. This particular W.D., being a bit feeble, will effect the the regions of central and north Pakistan and hilly areas of India only. But the second W.D. in the sereis, coming on the heels of the first, is stronger. For the second W.D., assisted with the help of a "secondary low" in the sindh area of Pakistan and Rajasthan, the incursion of moisture from the Arabian Sea into all of Pakistan, Rajasthan and all the regions of north India ( Punjab,Kashmir, Haryana and the hilly states) will be particularly heavy.

Heavy rain can be expected in the coastal areas of sindh on 6-7 Jan. and plenty of rain in the rest of Pakistan.
Come Monday and punjab, haryana and delhi and the north western parts of the India are likely to see a mix of cloud and showers, some of the showers heavy, with the chance of some hail and thunder. The north of gujarat and south rajasthan will have some cloud and a few light showers at times.

The two combined W.D.s are likely to last till the end of next week, till the 13th. before disintgrating into the central Himalayas (Due to stronger n-e winds from the bay). A cold wave can be expected in all of north, central and western India (including maharashtra and north karnatak) from the 13th. onwards. More of this later, as it is premature to forecast that from now !

The prevailing easterly wave bringing rain to south India will dissipate soon, maybe by tomorrow. With the W.D.s moving in, south is not expected to get much rain through any systems or "waves". In fact, the existing north easterly winds blowing over the bay, can get stronger, and push the rain belt southwards.

kapadias@gmail.com

Low night temperatures ! That has been the story for Pakistan and north India for the last few days (rather nights)! A few of the" below normal" lows recorded in Pakistan were: -13c Kalat,-9 Quetta, ,-3c Islamabad,-2c Lahore,-1 Nawwabshah and Faisalabad, 7c Karachi.

Across the border, it was -20c Leh, -9c Awantipur,-3 Adampur(Punjab),-2c Amritsar,-1c Churu, 1.9c Delhi and, ofcourse, 12.2c Mumbai (SantaCruz).

Just for information, the lowest in Asia yesterday was Ojmjakon (siberia) at -55c !

Now, according to Vinson of the Bussiness Line, the ridge causing the "dry" cold is being pushed by an approaching W.D.

This, and another W.D. behind, is likely to bring good amounts of rain, first to Pakistan, by the weekend. In fact, as per the "COLA", the full region from Dubai to Pakistan, especially Sindh region, will get damped by the system, during the weekend and early next week.

For India, it will be snow for Kashmir and the hills next week. Fair amounts of rain in Punjab,Haryana and north Rajasthan could be forecasted, as per the GFS, for next week.

As Jim informs, the system has already dumped snow over Tehran,where the day temperature was 2c.

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Cold conditions are prevailing in the north west and north India and in Pakistan since the last few days.

In Pakistan, the low has dropped to -2 c in Islamabad, and to -13c in Skardu and Kalat. Nawabshah and Sibi in Sindh are cold at a low of 0 degreesc. Karachi recorded 7c last night.


People in the Kashmir valley, Leh, Kargil and Dras continue to shiver with biting cold during nights but enjoy during the day because of above normal temperature.
The minimum temperature in the valley was -7.9 c, coldest night of the winter so far. Yesterday, it was -7.1 c during the night, a weather office spokesman said.
The major parts of the world famous Dal Lake froze and water tapes in several localities were damaged. However, frozen water and water tapes started melting as the day progressed.
It was the coldest night after the minimum temperature was recorded at -7.9c, 5.2 degrees below normal.
The lowest temperature of minus 12.8 c was recorded on December 13, 1964 when water in the Dal Lake was totally frozen.
However, the day was a bit warmer after the maximum temperature was recorded at 12 c, five degree above normal.
There is a difference of 10 degree between minimum and maximum temperature in the valley.
Interestingly, night temperature at tourist spot Pahalgam was minus 6.8 c, about a degree warmer than Srinagar. Nights in Kupwara, Baramulla, Banihal, Katra, Doda, Kishtwar and Jammu were few degree warmer than Srinagar.
However, people in Leh, Kargil and Dras, continued to shiver after the temperature dipped to -15 C to minus 20 c

Delhi had the coldest night of the season and the minimum was 2.6c, and Adampur at -3c and Amrisar at -2c (both in Punjab).

Mumbai dropped to 13.8c two days ago, and has been at around 15c for the last few days(Santa Cruz.)