Monsoon Watch -2 ...2024....21st April.

1.Mascrene Highs...

This is a series of Very High Pressure areas. The power house of the S.W. Monsoon forming down South. 

Formations below the Normal requirement.

Indicator: Negative

2. Seasonal Pre Monsoon Heat...well,  there is complaint of "Heat", but observe the real scene.

The squares show the "below normal" anomaly. The Monsoon parameters see this....reality 

Indicator : Normal

3. Seasonal Low

Core between 1006 mb...Should normally be 1004/1006.......As mentioned, by end May/early June it normally should reach a low nadir of 994 mb in June in the Thar Desert, and with 1008mb in the South Arabian Sea, a perfect gradient is created to attract the south -west winds towards the coast.

Indictor: Neutral.

4. The Line of Wind Discontinuity in Peninsula India, should normally stabilise around Central India perpendicular down into the Southern Peninsula by mid April. 

But this year it has been active first half of April, and continuing into latter half of April

Indicator: Neutral

5. ENSO;

An ENSO event is not active in the tropical Pacific Ocean and there are no signs of an El Niño or La Niña developing. Possible with signs of La Nina developing.

But La Nina is not the only parameter for estimating our Monsoon.

Indicator: Positive

6. Bay Low:

The Bay has yet to host a pre monsoon low during  April. 
As discussed, we should normally see a low sometime after the 15th of April. 

Another factor, which helps the winds gain strength, and bring more moisture into the Indian landmass, is the sea temperatures on both sides of the Peninsula. 

C

0

1

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5

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9

11

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15

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19

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24

27

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35

Indicator: Positive

After 2007, this is the first time when both +IOD and La Nina may develop and exist simultaneously during the core SWM months (July/August).

Overall Summary: Parameters 

1. Negative

2. Normal 

3. Neutral 

4. Neutral 

5. Positive 

6. Positive

Seems (without commitment today)..SWM onset could be on time

But, situations can change fast, and by the time we discuss the next MW, some factors can suddenly become +ve or -ve. So, MW discusses and follows the developments as they emerge, and discuss the parameters as is where is. 

No model can commit  today when the Monsoon can arrive. 

Also, Quantum of rain forecasting in April for June right through September is an impossible task. Things get clearer by last week of April. 

Vagaries' (in MW) normally remains true to estimates around early May.