30th April
Bangalore special forecast:
The long dry spell is likely to be broken around 2nd May. After seeing temperatures consistently above 37°c since last 9 days.
Bangalore region is likely to get thunderstorms during the period 2nd to 5th May.
Mysore region as well as Nilgiris may get good thunderstorms during this period.
Ooty recorded 29.0°c on Monday 29th.
The all time record for any month thus broken which was 28.5°c on 29-4-1986.
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Issued Tuesday 30 April 2024
Credit Australian government Bureau of metereology
The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on our website.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation neutral; Indian Ocean Dipole tending positive
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific have been steadily cooling since December 2023. This surface cooling is supported by a significant amount of sub-surface cooling underneath the central and eastern Pacific. Recent cloud and surface pressure patterns are also neutral.
Both Bureau and international climate models suggest ENSO will likely remain neutral until at least July 2024. El Niño and La Niña predictions made in mid-autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year, meaning that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond July should be used with caution.
Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been the warmest on record for each month between April 2023 and March 2024, with April 2024 SSTs currently tracking warmer than April 2023. The global pattern of warmth is affecting the typical historical global pattern of sea surface temperatures associated with ENSO variability. As the current global ocean conditions have not been observed before, inferences of how ENSO may develop in 2024 that are based on past events may not be reliable.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The most recent value of the IOD index (+0.68 °C) is above the positive IOD threshold (+0.40 °C). This is its seventh week above the positive IOD threshold. Typically, a positive IOD event is considered underway once the IOD index is sustained above +0.40 °C for about 8 weeks. Along with signs in atmospheric indicators, the model outlooks also indicate a positive IOD event may be developing. If a positive IOD develops, it would be earlier in the calendar year than is typical historically.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently neutral (as at 30 April). Forecasts indicate the index is mostly likely to rapidly fall, dipping into negative values at the beginning of May, and remaining at negative SAM levels for at least the first two weeks of May. However, SAM historically has little influence on Australian rainfall patterns in autumn.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently moderately strong, located in the eastern Indian Ocean. The majority of international climate models indicate the MJO will track further eastwards into the Maritime Continent in the coming week.
Read the full report on our website. It includes the latest updates on climate drivers in the Pacific, Indian and Southern oceans, and the tropics.
More information
Media liaison (03) 9669 4057
Technical enquiries helpdesk.climate@bom.gov.au
Next update expected by 14 May 2024
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