Saturday, October 15, 2022

Monsoon withdrawal from Mumbai, Pune and north Konkan delayed till 20th October...now seems final.

However, a cyclonic circulation in the Arabian Sea is likely to push moisture northwards towards north Konkan and up to south Gujarat on 16th/17th/18th October. 

Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Thane also have a chance to witness rain/thundershowers on 17th/18th. Monsoon will be over after 20th.

Monsoon was on track to withdraw from Mumbai and neighbouring regions by 17th/18th.  (Weather vagaries and Nature is forcing us to make frequent changes😡)

Pune city and outskirts can also receive thundershowers on 17th/18th.

Thunder Showers in Ghats of Nashik/Ahmednagar/Pune districts on Monday 17th and Tuesday 18th October. 

Marathwada areas of Aurangabad, Jalna, Beed, Nanded, Latur could receive rain/thundershowers in parts from Sunday 16th to Tuesday 18th October. 

Parts of Vidarbha (Akola, Amravati) districts can also get some rain from 16th-18th October. 

Along with a trough like feature in easterlies at 850 hPa, this can trigger rain/thundershowers across parts of South Gujarat (Valsad/Navsari, although chance is less). 

Forecasted surface winds and Relative Humidity for 17th



Forecasted 850 hPa winds and Relative Humidity for 17th
Yellow dashed line separates dry air and moist air regions.

After SW Monsoon withdrawal from North Konkan, entire North Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha and Marathwada, dry easterlies (and October heat for Konkan) could set in from 20th/21st October.

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NEM..

Bay of Bengal  witness frequent cyclonic circulations as  easterly Waves, normally anytime after 15th October. This is precursor of onset of Northeast Monsoon.

We expect a Low to emerge in the Bay around 17th...and feel North East Monsoon will resultantly set in around 21st...Simultaneous to SWM withdrawal.

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