Thursday, April 08, 2021

Posted 8th April Afternoon:

La Nina waning...The Coming of "La Nada*"...( Young enthusiastic Meteorologists please note this phenomena)

This winter has been dominated by La Nina. a period of below-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific.

But there is major news on the La Nina front.   La Nina is now collapsing and should be history in a few months.

To show this, let's start by looking at the sea surface temperature anomaly (difference from normal) for the central tropical Pacific,  an area called the Nino 3.4 region (see map).



The cold temperature anomaly has weakened considerably, down to about .6C.   La Nina has weakened.  

In fact, if it gets much lower (less than .5C below normal) then we would call it a neutral or normal period.

In early February there was substantial cold water in the upper portions of the Pacific, with warm water limited to the western portion of the ocean.  But by the end of March, almost all the cold water was gone and warm water has surged eastward below the surface about three-quarters of the way across the Pacific.  As this warm water mixes to the surface, La Nina will rapidly become history.

 Projections  (Forecasts) are that the central Pacific sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 area will warm, resulting in a transition to Neutral or La Nada* conditions.  We must note that such forecasts are not reliable in spring

*Between the hot El Niño and the cool La Niña lies La Nada, the nothing, normal water temperatures.

In between these two types of weather is La Nada: “The Nothing”. 

Excerpts from Cliff Mass weather Blog

Readers: Please give your views on how these rapid changes will affect our Monsoon.

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Max Temperatures on 7th:


1 comment:

NilaY Wankawala said...

Sir, sea surface temperature anomaly leading towards Normal ENSO Phase, and it should be in that phase till June 2021 where SWM would kick in. Factor should be NEUTRAL with respect to Monsoon here in India?

"Projections (Forecasts) are that the central Pacific sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 area will warm" would it mean only this area would be warmer than other? I mean warmth would be centered here in central pacific?

Sir Your valuable inputs and interetation please.

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