Sunday, February 17, 2019

Posted Sunday 17th Night:

F-3 over North India now. Rains/snow expected next 2 days.
Delhi NCR; Moderate rains next 3 days. 
F-4, more intense approaches North India and NW plains on 20th. More Rains in North from F-4

Mumbai: Pleasant spell to subside..Gradual increase in warmth next 3 days. 
Pune/Aurangabad: Gradual heat up leading to 35c by Mid week. Wait for weekend !

Kolkata: Hot on Wednesday and Thursday to 35c...


NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology ENSO wrap up

Issued 19 February 2019

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

Tropical Pacific ENSO-neutral, but some recent warming observed

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook is at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the coming autumn or winter, twice the normal likelihood.

El Niño typically results in below average autumn and winter rainfall for southern and eastern Australia.

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have warmed slightly in the past fortnight. In the sub-surface, weak warmth extends down to 175 m depth. Recent weakening of the trade winds in the western Pacific means that further warming of the equatorial Pacific is likely in the coming weeks to months.

Five of eight climate models indicate the central Pacific is likely to reach borderline or weak El Niño levels during autumn, with four models remaining above these threshold levels into winter. El Niño predictions made in late summer and early autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with some caution.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April.

More information

Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057

Next update expected on 5 March 2019

shiekhz said...

@rajesh sir, are we going to see strong weather in karachi?

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