Monday, February 04, 2019

Posted Monday 4th February Afternoon:

The February Western Disturbance, F-1, is approaching.Will bring precipitation rain/snow in Upper Pakistan on 4th/5th, with some rainfall in upper Sindh regions.

On 6th, F-1 moves into India via the Western Himalayan route. The intense W.D. will bring heavy amounts of rain/snow in Kashmir, H.P. and Uttarakhand on 6th and 7th, while actually commencing from 5th February. 
Induced Low and subsequent wind confluence will result in 
Rain, thunder  and hail  also in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and North Rajasthan and  U.P. on Wednesday 6th and Thursday 7th. With sharp drop in day temperatures.
Parts of Northern M.P. (Jabalpur- drop in day temperatures) will get light to medium rains on 7th.
Light rain expected in Vidharbh on 7th Thursday (Nagpur).

Warm and partly cloudy on Monday. Monday/Tuesday days likely to be around 32/33c, with lows at 19/20c.
From Wednesday 6th, Mumbai can expect cooler days and nights till Saturday. Pleasant weather from 7th-9th with temperature range between 27/28c and 13/14c at Scruz.
So, a  pleasant period from Wednesday....


Warm on Monday 4th and Tuesday 5th, with partly cloudy skies and a bit more humid. Days around 32c.
But, better from Wednesday thru Saturday, with days dropping to 26/27c and nights to 8/9c on Wednesday and Thursday.


NilaY Wankawala said...

wonderful to note mumbai extending and enjoying cooler days ahead

shiekhz said...

:( nothing for karachi

sset said...

JK,Punjab,HP,RAJ,Haryana excess surplus rains due to above normal weastern disturbances -becoming like part of Indian monsoon system!

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology ENSO wrap up

Issued 5 February 2019

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

El Niño WATCH for autumn

ENSO Outlook
Our ENSO Outlook provides
up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.
ENSO Outlook dial showing El Niño WATCH status
Current status: El Niño WATCH

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the southern hemisphere autumn or winter.

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have cooled slightly in the past fortnight but remain warmer than average. Importantly, in the central to western Pacific, warmer than average sub-surface waters persist. This is often a precursor to El Niño events. While most atmospheric indicators of ENSO are neutral, trade winds have been weaker than average, or even reversed, across the central and western Pacific in recent weeks, leading to sub-surface warming. Westerly wind anomalies over the western tropical Pacific are forecast to persist a little longer, which is likely to assist further warming of the tropical Pacific.

The majority of climate models suggest ENSO-neutral sea surface temperatures will continue through autumn. However, the current ocean warmth, and the forecast for warmer than average sea surface temperatures later in the year, means the possibility of El Niño remains. Three of eight models suggest that El Niño may establish by mid-2019, with another three models on the warm side of neutral. It should be noted that model outlooks that span the southern autumn period tend to have lower accuracy than outlooks issued at other times of the year. This means outlooks beyond May should be used with some caution.

El Niño often, but not always, brings below average autumn and winter rainfall to southern and eastern Australia.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April.

More information

Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057

Next update expected on 19 February 2019

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