Thursday, November 01, 2018

Breaking : Mumbai Scruz recorded the hottest November day ever on Saturday 3rd today. Touching 37.6c,breaking the previous record of 37.4c set in 1979,2003.
Rains were reported from Pune, Ahmed nagar and  Eastern outer townships received heavy rains. 

On Friday 2nd, Good rainfall and snow in Kashmir and H.P. medium rains were received in Uttarakahnd also.
Srinagar had a high of 8.6c and a Low of 1.8c, with almost 50 mms rains. 
Gulmarg and other higher reaches and medium reaches had snow...Gulmarg max during day was 0.4c. and a Low of -3.0c. 
Pahalgam had snow too with the day's high at 4.8c. with 48 mms rain/snow.

In H.P, Keylong had 32 mms rain/snow with the low at -1.3c.
Manali had 40 mms rain/snow with the temperature range between 8.2c and 2.2c.

A cyclonic   circulation   over   eastcentral   Arabian   Sea   and   adjoining southeast   Arabian   sea   &   Coastal Karnataka between 3.1 and 3.6 km above mean sea level persists.

Posted 1st November Night:

1. The North East Monsoon has advanced into Coastal TN, Puducherry, South int TN, Coastal A.P. and South Kerala.. An Easterly wave with "setting" E/NE  winds upto 850 levels heralded the advance.

2. A Low pressure is likely to form in the South Bay around the 3rd/4th of November at about 7N and 95E. It will strengthen and track NW towards the TN Coast. 
Indications currently show it strengthening and tracking towards the TN Coast. Can cross the coast around 7th. Widespread rains expected in TN.

3.An active Western Disturbance will bring widespread rains and snow to Kashmir and H.P. on Friday thru the weekend. Srinagar will get cold days this weekend with rainfall.

4. Moisture laden SE winds will bring weekend showers to Madhya Maharashtra and North Interior Konkan.

Mumbai: Partly cloudy Friday and rise in night temperatures. Cloudy Saturday with light rains in some parts. Cloudy and stuffy on Sunday with rise in night temperatures.
Thunder Showers likely in Eastern Outer townships on Saturday and Sunday. Upto 10 mms rain possible on Saturday.

Pune: Cloudy on Friday, with medium to heavy thunder showers on saturday and Sunday. Rise in night temperatures, weekend days will be cooler.

Rainfall with thunder expected in Mahableshwar and Lonavala on Saturday/Sunday.
Light rains likely in parts of Marathwada on Saturday.


Narayanan chennai said...

Thanks a lot for your coverage of North East monsoon

Prasanna Venkatraman said...


Can you explain on what basis you are expecting the low in the East BOB to track towards TN? Leading models like ECM are only expecting a weak system which would be pushed into equatorial waters by the prevailing Easterlies. An explanation would be very useful. Thanks!

sset said...

Good to see bloggers from south India. NE Monsoon is lifeline for SE India. As of now seems to be very weak. To come out of chronic drought entire Tamil Nadu, South Andhra Pradesh, interiors of KAR require atleast 3-4 lows pressure systems with widespread 3 digit figure rains. As of now seems to be very south of Sri Lanka - always of fear of moving into Arabian sea (hitting yemen), or moving towards Orissa / NE states- will be disaster for TN/AP/KAR.

sset said...

But Prasanna we need to have faith on Vagaries - Rajesh Sir -> is most reliable and true forecast. Earlier IMD,Skymet made 3 failed attempts NEM onset.

Rajesh said...

Prasanna: I have written it seems from today's situation: The Low will form down south, but can be embedded in the Easterly wave, and track along the eaterly wave trough.

Thanks sset for the confidence shown in "Vagaries"..

Prasanna Venkatraman said...

Thanks a lot Rajesh sir. Hope your prediction comes true.Just wanted to understand the rationale behind it

Narayanan chennai said...

Thanks for your explanation we understand you had predicted at time of observation ..We would wait for nature's dynamics to unfold next week...Advance Diwali wishes to Vagarians and to you sir!!!

Hrishikesh said...

When do we expect rain in mumbai ?