Sunday, March 11, 2018

Posted Tuesday Night:
BB-1 is now a Depression, at 6.5N and 75E....This could be well the first Depression in the Arabian Sea in March in many many years...See Vagaries blog of 21/22 March 2008 for similar conditions.
BB-1 likely to move N/NW.
Rains Likely in Coastal Karnataka, Goa by Thursday and in Pune by Friday.

Posted Monday Night:
1. Favourable MJO conditions in the Bay regions and a trough from the UAC towards the Bay Islands, prompted and hastened the formation of BB-1 at this time of the year. An Anti Cyclone in the Bay coincided with the Southerly location.
2, The anti Cyclone in the Arabian Sea, if it moves West, can make the BB-1 system track along/off the West Coast of India, off the coast till around 15N. This track is now a 25% probability.
3. Latest Location: Estimated at approximately 4.2N and 78.6E.

Konkan/Mumbai/Coastal Karnatak/Goa: Cloudy from Wednesday with light rains Thursday/Friday.

Posted Sunday 11th March  Night:

BB-1 (the first system from Bay of 2018) has formed , and is now currently at 2N and 80E, South of Sri Lanka and India Southern tip.
System is a Well Marked Low, and will intensify upto Depression level by 14th March. BB-1 will track W/NW for 2 days and then NW . In its path, it will cross the Lakshdweep Islands. 
Very gusty winds and rough seas are predicted from Tuesday night over the Islands and off the Kerala Coast.Heavy rains also likely along Kerala coast and Lakshdweep Islands on 14th/15th March.
Due to existing Anti cyclone, 90% chance of the system fizzling out in the Mid Arabian Sea by 16th March.

On 15th March, Western Disturbance M-2 moves and brings heavy  rains in Kashmir, H.P. and moderate rainfall in the Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and West U.P.
Moderate rains in parst of NCR on 15th March, but getting hot before that.

Rains are likely along the West Coast of India on 15th March. Isolated light to medium rains likely in Madhya Maharashtra also.

Mumbai: Monday 12th and Tuesday 13th will be hot and sunny, around 36/37c...Wednesday will be partly cloudy and some light rains expected on Thursday 15th/ Friday 16th.
Entire Konkan coast and Goa likely to heat up to touch 40c at places on Monday and Tuesday. Light rains likely on 15th/16th....Light rains likely on 15th in Aurangabad.

A Line of Wind Discontinuity is likely to form along the Verical line thru the Southern Peninsula from the 16th. Pre Monsoon Thunder Showers likely from 19th /20th in Southern Peninsula. 

2nd week April will see good pre Monsoon Thunder Showers in the Interiors of Maharashtra and Interior Karnataka.


sset said...

Ho No! Again Southern India missed chance of good rain - system should have moved interior starting from southern tip... just like Ockhi cyclone....

NilaY Rajnikant Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology.

Issued 13 March 2018


The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.


La Niña ends, El Niño–Southern Oscillation returns to neutral



ENSO Outlook

Our ENSO Outlook provides
up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.

Current status: INACTIVE

The 2017–18 La Niña has ended. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have eased back to neutral levels over the past several weeks. This means the ENSO Outlook has shifted from LA NIÑA to INACTIVE.


The end of the La Niña is clear in oceanic and atmospheric indices. Sea surface temperatures have warmed steadily since December, and are now in the neutral range. Waters beneath the surface have also warmed. In the atmosphere, cloudiness near the Date Line has returned to near-average levels, and trade winds are generally near average across the equatorial Pacific. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is well within the neutral range.


Most models indicate that ENSO-neutral is the most likely scenario through the southern hemisphere autumn and into winter. However, model accuracy during autumn is lower than at other times of year. A neutral ENSO pattern does not necessarily signify average rainfall and temperature for Australia. Rather, it indicates a reduced chance of prolonged very wet or dry, or very hot or cold conditions, and that other climate drivers may have greater influence over the coming months.


The weak and short-lived La Niña had relatively little effect on Australian rainfall patterns over the 2017–18 summer. However, it may have kept temperatures higher than average in southern parts of the country due to weather patterns being slower moving, and further south than normal.


The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. IOD events are unable to form between December and April. Current outlooks suggest a neutral IOD for autumn and early winter.

More information

Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057
Next update expected on 27 March 2018.

Rajesh Kumar said...

First System of the season on the way for us (SIK)

sset said...

An anticyclone is a region of high atmospheric pressure relative to the surrounding air, generally thousands of kilometres in diameter and also known as a high or high-pressure system. Anticyclones appear on weather charts as a series of concentric, widely spaced isobars of 1000 mbs and above. The roughly circular closed isobar at its central region indicates the area of highest pressure. Isobars are usually units of 4mbs..

sset said...

As per BBC Bangalore is one of top 10 most water starved cities!
Horrible nature of Bangalore last remaining lakes and continuous loss of trees - questioned by other states!!!

Cumulus Arjun said...

Even rains in Mumbai possible by Thursday/Friday!

Both Maps from The Weather Channel..