BB-1 is now a Depression, at 6.5N and 75E....This could be well the first Depression in the Arabian Sea in March in many many years...See Vagaries blog of 21/22 March 2008 for similar conditions.
BB-1 likely to move N/NW.
Rains Likely in Coastal Karnataka, Goa by Thursday and in Pune by Friday.
Posted Monday Night:
1. Favourable MJO conditions in the Bay regions and a trough from the UAC towards the Bay Islands, prompted and hastened the formation of BB-1 at this time of the year. An Anti Cyclone in the Bay coincided with the Southerly location.
2, The anti Cyclone in the Arabian Sea, if it moves West, can make the BB-1 system track along/off the West Coast of India, off the coast till around 15N. This track is now a 25% probability.
3. Latest Location: Estimated at approximately 4.2N and 78.6E.
Konkan/Mumbai/Coastal Karnatak/Goa: Cloudy from Wednesday with light rains Thursday/Friday.
Posted Sunday 11th March Night:
BB-1 (the first system from Bay of 2018) has formed , and is now currently at 2N and 80E, South of Sri Lanka and India Southern tip.
System is a Well Marked Low, and will intensify upto Depression level by 14th March. BB-1 will track W/NW for 2 days and then NW . In its path, it will cross the Lakshdweep Islands.
Very gusty winds and rough seas are predicted from Tuesday night over the Islands and off the Kerala Coast.Heavy rains also likely along Kerala coast and Lakshdweep Islands on 14th/15th March.
Due to existing Anti cyclone, 90% chance of the system fizzling out in the Mid Arabian Sea by 16th March.
On 15th March, Western Disturbance M-2 moves and brings heavy rains in Kashmir, H.P. and moderate rainfall in the Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and West U.P.
Moderate rains in parst of NCR on 15th March, but getting hot before that.
Rains are likely along the West Coast of India on 15th March. Isolated light to medium rains likely in Madhya Maharashtra also.
Mumbai: Monday 12th and Tuesday 13th will be hot and sunny, around 36/37c...Wednesday will be partly cloudy and some light rains expected on Thursday 15th/ Friday 16th.
Entire Konkan coast and Goa likely to heat up to touch 40c at places on Monday and Tuesday. Light rains likely on 15th/16th....Light rains likely on 15th in Aurangabad.
A Line of Wind Discontinuity is likely to form along the Verical line thru the Southern Peninsula from the 16th. Pre Monsoon Thunder Showers likely from 19th /20th in Southern Peninsula.
2nd week April will see good pre Monsoon Thunder Showers in the Interiors of Maharashtra and Interior Karnataka.