Wednesday, March 01, 2017

ENSO-
neutral conditions are present.

 > Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-average across the central
and east-central Pacific. They are above-average in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
> ENSO-neutral conditions have returned and are favoured to continue through at
least the months of March/April/May.

During the last four weeks, negative SST anomalies weakened in the central Pacific.
Meanwhile, above-average SSTs increased and expanded westward from the eastern Pacific.

During the last two months, negative subsurface temperature anomalies have dissipated across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Positive subsurface anomalies have increased along the thermocline across the tropical Pacific Ocean. 

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.

(Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. 
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST
departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.)

The most recent ONI value (November 2016 – January 2017) is -0.7ºC.

9 comments:

Abhijit said...

Mangalore does it again !! i e within 15 days breaks it own record !! Mangalore city max 39.6°C today dated 1st March 2017.

It not just broken March but again broken all time highest max temp record of all months !! Previous all months highest was 38.7c on 15 Feb 2017 !!

Cumulus Arjun said...

Hot weather in Mumbai

Nilay Wankawala said...

come July Aug 2017 and a full fledged el nino? Sir what's your view? or early days?

sset said...

Drought in Kerala causes Rs 225 crore loss to crops.
KAR,KER,TN all in grip of serious drought + high temperatures. Weather scientist should probably forecast how rains will be for 2017 - given fact that 2016 monsoon failure for southern India was not forecasted earlier.

Nilay Wankawala said...

IMD says normal rains this year

Visit link

http://www.ecoti.in/xKmeEb

Credit economic times

Ankit patel said...

Ahmedabad weather summery Feb 2017

Highest max temp=37.3 C (18th feb)
Lowest max temp= 26.2 C (5th feb)
Highest min temp= 21.2 C (16th feb)
Lowest min temp= 9.6 C (7th Feb)

Mean max temp = 32.17 C
(1.37 c above normal..Avg(1981-2000)=30.8 C)
Mean min temp = 15.88 C
(1.58 c above normal.....avg (1981-2000)=14.3 C)
Mean avg temp= 23.74 C
(1.20 c above normal avg (1981-2000)=22.5 C)

Mean total Rainfall =0.0 mm (avg (1981-2000)=0.008 mm)
Mean (avg)visibility = 3.7 km
Mean total cloud cover=1.09 0cta

Max pressure(msl) = 1018.6 hp
Min pressure(msl) = 1009.4 hp
Mean pressure(msl)=1014.3 hp

*mean=monthly avg

Cumulus Arjun said...

IMD's forecast of normal SWM rains this year can be true if Weak El Niño would start to persist by September-end-early October and at that time there is not much rain. Hopefully, this year should be a normal monsoon this year.

sset said...

That is what they said last year also -but result was excess 3 times rains over MAHA/central India - horrible drought for south.

By the way heart breaking to say atleast now Bangalore people are raising voice - useless steel flyover is scrapped. BBMP, BDA, BMRCL should be thrown out - how can they cut few remaining trees when entire KAR is in drought! Bangalore will look like desert if few remaining trees are gone and add to this no rain! Why can't KAR CM visit Navi Mumbai - see how CIDCO, NMMC function smart cities with crores of trees -environment centeric,

Nilay Wankawala said...

Pollution is causing "life-giving" rain to become increasingly acidic in many parts of the country, particularly in the last decade, research by India Meteorological Department and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology has revealed.

Refer link below

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/pune/pollution-turning-countrys-rainfall-acidic-says-study/articleshow/57461536.cms

Credit Times of India 4 MAR 2017.