Saturday, March 28, 2015

Sunday's Rain forecasted in Vagaries come on Saturday....
From Pradeep (Vagaries Rainman)...LIVE Rainfall Update - Maharashtra getting good rains
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Its time for Live update of Maharashtra Rainfall till 10.00 pm on 28.03.2015 from Vagaries Rainman
in
Nagewadi - 46  Kumbhi - 34  Padsali - 34  Patherpunj - 23  Andhra - 22  Ranjani - 20  Dawadi - 19
Moleshwari - 19  Khamgaon - 18  Temghar - 16  Khumberi - 12  Poladapur - 8
Pratapgad - 7  Chinchwad - 7  Khandala - 6  Bhalwadi - 6  Waki - 6  Walvan - 6  Bhimashankar - 6  Bamnoli - 5  Vaibhavadi - 5  Tathwade - 5  Navaja - 5  Dhombhalkavadi - 5  Alandi - 5  Nasik - 5

Saturday Rains in Western Maharashtra...Matheran and Mahableshwar receive rains Saturday evening..
Pic of Rainfall over Matheran on Saturday evening sent by Abhijit...



and rain in Badlapur 



Waqas from Pakistan reports of Currently strong gale at Gujrat (Pakistan) with huge thunder lightning and moderate rains...
Raining in much of upper pak ...
These pics from Waqas' friend Hassan from Rawalpindi...



Answer to shridhar's Comment

Shridhar.: Initially, let us see that the ToI report on the hailstorms refers to last years events. they are referring to 2014, and say that might be the same for 2015.

But, analysing we see that this year, the ElNino event is not yet established. the parameters for the event have yet to form and may take another 30-45 days to establish an El Nino, if at all.
The map above provides NASA’s view of the conditions. It shows the ten-day average of sea surface height (centered on March 13, 2015) in the Pacific Ocean. It is based on data collected by the Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason 2satellite and analyzed by scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

An again, why have previous El Nino years not produced such violent hailstorms ?
I do not see any positive or definite link.....

A recent paper from National Institute of Oceanography, Goa, clarifies this to some extent. An excerpt....
Paper by
Tropical cyclones over north Indian Ocean during  El‐Niño  Modoki years
K.G. Sumesh and M.R. Ramesh Kumar
Physical Oceanography Division
National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa 403004


"The Air‐Sea interaction processes such as El‐Niño and El‐Niño modoki events have significant impacts on the
tropical cyclones over NIO. We have observed that the frequency of tropical cyclones are more (less) over
Arabian Sea (Bay of Bengal) during the El‐Niño Modoki years compared to the  El‐Niño years.  Our present
study suggests that concurrent occurring PIOD with ElNino Modoki events can significantly alter
cyclogenesis  parameters over the Arabian Sea as compared to a pure ElNino Modoki year .The convective
phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation also plays a significant role in the cyclogenesis over the north
Indian Ocean. Our present study suggests that the cyclogenesis formation over the north Indian Ocean is a
complex phenomena, as it influenced  by several coupled ocean atmospheric phenomena such as ElNino,
ElNino Modki, Indian Ocean Dipole and Madden Julian Oscillation."


Rains are back in Kashmir, ending 8.30 am on 29.03.2014

Western Disturbance (W.D) as a trough aloft in upper & mid tropospheric westerlies, runs roughly along Longitude 66.0°E and north of Latitude 23.0°N. Under the influence of WD, an induced low pressure area has formed over central parts of Pakistan & adjoining West Rajasthan with associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 0.9 km above mean sea level.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Kupwara 58
Gulmarg - 52
Baramullah - 51
Pahalgam - 47
Srinagar IAF - 45
Srinagar - 44
Rambagh - 44
Katra - 35
MAlangapura - 32
Zainapora - 27
Banihal - 25
Quazigund - 22
Anatnag - 21
Kulgam - 21
Kukernag - 21
Batote - 14
Jammu - 13
Govindapura - 11

Bordoichila pounds Assam for 2nd day, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 28.03.2015

The upper air cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand & adjoining Bihar now seen as a trough from East Bihar to South Chattisgarh and extends up to 1.5 km above mean sea level.

in mm

Dhubri - 65
Kajalgaon - 39
Chamata - 38
Goalpara - 36
Guwahati AP - 30
Dudhnoi - 26
Baihata Chariali - 24
Nalbari - 19
Rangia - 19
Gossaigaon - 18 
Mushalpuar - 16
Jorhat - 16
Borkhetri - 16
Srijangram - 16
Raha - 14
Patharughat - 12
Dibrugarh AP - 11
Barepta - 11
Naharkatia
Kokrajhar - 9 
Golghat - 8
Laharighat - 7
Marghertia - 7
Dibrugarh - 7
Kakopather - 5
Udalguri - 5
Tamalpur - 5
Nazira - 5
Bakojan - 5
 

4 comments:

Hrishikesh said...

Extremely cloudy morning here in western suburbs of mumbai but temp still high at 28 sir does the paragraph means that there are more cyclones in arabian sea than in bay of Bengal during el nino modki I have heard about el nino but not el nino modki

sset said...

As a layman observation - last year 2014 we had series of arabian sea cyclones always meant for interruptions (1)Nanuk pre monsoon season - impacting GUJ/MAHA/GULF (2)Nilofer post monsoon season - impacting GUJ/MAHA - completely distorting fragile NEM - impacting rains for drought strilen SE India (3)NE monsoons - seems were more prominent on Arabian sea side rather than Bay side - hence entire North TN/South AP - Rayalseeam/SE interior KAR no rains from NEM...

rajesh said...

Hrishikesh:
To know more about the El Nino Modokai, see the article dated 12th July 2012...scroll down this page
http://www.vagaries.in/p/editorial-page.html

sset said...

Looks like strongest Western Disturbances ever recorded in India - benefiting RAJ.GUJ,MP,UP,KASH - entire northern India overshadowing summer.