Friday, March 06, 2015

Srinagar measured 36 mms on Sunday and 10 mms on Saturday..46 mms in last 2 days.Day's high was 3.4c.

Saturday 7th: Gujrat City in Pak saw a max of 15.5c on Saturday (Vagaries' estimate was 18c), and 22 mms against forecasted 20-25 mms. Islamabad saw 28 mms on Saturday, with another 7 mms on Sundayagainst estimated 50-55 mms for Sat and Sun combined.Karachi had no rains.

Delhi Sjung measured 14 mms and Palam 19 mms. Meerut 17 mms and Hindon 8.6 mms. Some Northern parts had no rainfall.
Thunder Storm with very Gusty winds in many parts of Delhi NCR on Saturday Evening...

For Aurangabad Readers; (Vagaries column in Lokmat Times Sunday)
"Weather Watch
March seems to be getting off to a wet start ! Already last week's rains are keeping the day temperatures below the normal for this time of the year.
Another spell of rains coming ....and Aurangabad will be getting another rain spell on Monday 9th March. This time, the rains will be persisting till Wednesday. Cool and cloudy days will be the start of next week.Wednesday will be cool. Would expect around 15-20 mms in 3 days of rainfall.
But, surely it will be not so good news for the farmers. The standing wheat crops in the fields are recommneded to be left uncut. The cutting and harvesting would be damagaing as it would be difficult to keep the cut product dry. However, the harvested wheat needs to be kept safe. The mango flowers and raw fruits would see further damage and rotting. It would be a severe damage if the rains persist as expected. All other crops should be left un cut and safe in fields as exposing them would be damaging." (See Vagaries' Aurangabad Forecast here...Page 2
http://epaper.lokmat.com/lokmattimes/epapermain.aspx?queryed=78)

Vagaries' mentioned LWD rain continues in Karnataka, ending 8.30 am on 08.03.2015 

The mentioned trough / wind discontinuity in Vagaries in the lower levels runs from Lakshadweep area to west Madhya Pradesh across coastal & north interior Karnataka and interior Maharashtra.
   
in mm (min 15 mm)

Doddabygathavalli - 72
Ganjalagodu - 72
Mushigeri - 53
Dundalli - 53
Arasalu - 44
Arkalgud - 41
Kondaguli - 40
Yalawar - 40
Belagatta - 35
Dudda - 34
Halekote - 33
Honnahalli - 31
Bindiganavole - 31
Turuvanur - 30
Kerehalli - 30
Koradakera - 29
Shirahatti - 29
S.Bidare - 29
Magadipalya - 27
Madraki - 27
Gorur - 26
Koyyuru - 25
Roudalabanda - 25
Ainolli - 23
Madgal - 23
Kudatini - 21
Marola - 21
Bendaganavele - 18
Deodurg - 17
Kaggere - 16
Dharmasthala - 16
Bhimalkhed - 16
Udabanalli - 15
Boodigere - 15
Kottigehara - 15
Tyagadabaji - 15
Madapura - 15
Basarikatte - 15

Vagaries Rainman

Posted Friday 6th March Noon (IST):

The expected Western Disturbance M-2 Moves into Pakistan from the West on Saturday 7th. A deep trough at 200 hpa level, and an induced Low over Punjab at Sea level brings Rainfall spreading from Balochistan into Pak Punjab by evening.

Sunday sees the WD continue to bring good precipitations to North Pakistan (Punjab) and move into Northern and NW India. Islamabad will see a wet weekend, thunder showers pouring around 50-55 mms this weekend. Saturday and Sunday.
Gujrat City in Pak Punjab can expect 20-25 mms. Cool Saturday at 18c Max. . 
Karachi: Cloudy on Saturday with light drizzles in parts of City. North winds dominate.

Rains possible on Sunday 8th  in Kashmir, HP, Punjab and Haryana and Northern Rajasthan. 
Sunday evening showers possible in N.I. Karnatak (Belgaum) and adjoining Southern regions of Maharastra.

Late Sunday Night and early Monday 9th morning we see heavy rains in some parts of Pak Punjab (Gujrat City) and adjoining Western parts of Indian Punjab.
Due to the LWD of North Winds from the WD and South/South East winds over Maharshtra,  rains increase in Maharashtra from Sunday night to move into Marathwada (Aurangabad) and  Vidharbha(Akola and Nagpur).




Heavy spells in parts of both Punjabs on Monday 9th. 
Showers on 9th Monday pop up  in Marathwada and Vidharbha. Some regions of Madhya Maharashtra, specially north get heavy showers. Possible to see some showers drift into Interior Central Konkan areas ( Roha, Panvel).

Cities Estimate till Monday 9th:
Mumbai: May not see much clouding or rainfall till Wednesday. Weekend and into Monday, the day temperatures will rise to reach 32c, and nights may go up to 21c (from current range of 30c_ 16c at Santa Cruz).

New Delhi: Weekend till Monday, partly cloudy, with stray shower in some parts of NCR on Saturday/Sunday. Gusty S/SE winds. Otherwise, day will be at 28c.

Pune: As the day becomes warm this Sat/Sund at 33c, thunder showers in some parts will cool the city on Monday 9th evening. Rains on Tuesday also. 

Belgaum: Showers from Sunday night into Monday.

Akola: The region will see a warm weekend with days possibly rising to 33/34c. But light showers on Sunday evening, and light rains on Monday will cool the atmosphere on Monday. Would expect around 5-7 mms rains from sunday night to Monday night. More rains  and cloudy next week.

Nagpur: Aftre a warm partly cloudy weekend, a thundershower possible on Sunday night. Maybe around 10 mms till Monday morning.

Surat and Bharuch will be warm or hot. Possible showers by mid next week.

================================

Moderate Rains in Tamil Nadu, ending 8.30 am on 07.03.2015

The upper air cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep and adjoining Maldives area extending upto 0.9 km above mean sea level persists.

in mm (min 5 mm)

Devala - 52
Anjatti - 30
Hogenekal - 30
Pennagaram - 25
Hosur - 25
Coimbatore AP - 20
Periakulam - 20
Kulasekahram - 18
Lower Nirar - 14
Dekanikottai - 14
Valparai - 14
Chinnakalar - 13
Thalavadi - 10
Eraniel - 10
Uthagamandalam - 9
Bodi - 9
Theni - 8
Pechiparai - 7
Yelagiri - 7
Munchirai - 7
Porthimund - 7
Jolarpet - 6
Manjalar - 5

Interior Karnataka continues to get widespread rain, ending 8.30 am on 07.03.2015

The upper air cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep and adjoining Maldives area extending upto 0.9 km above mean sea level persists.

in mm (min 25 mm)

K.Shettihalli - 80
Salagame - 65
Markandeyanakere - 64
Udbooru - 63
Nariyandada - 62
Gullahalli - 59
Malur - 56
Dugnoor - 52
Palya - 50
Arebommanahalli - 49
Chimkod - 49
Jayapura - 47
Somayajalpalli - 45
Mudabalu - 44
Badavanahalli - 35
Badanaguppe - 35
Bagur - 34
Mysuru - 33
Nanjangud - 33
Anekal - 31
Huliyurdurga - 31
Midigeshi - 30
Ramanagara - 30
T.Narasipura - 28
Dudda - 28
Mirle - 28
Ravandur - 27
Bilikere - 26
Srirangapatna - 25
Harohally - 25
Kallur - 25
Shantigrama - 25
Duddamagge - 25
Hassaan - 25
Alur - 25
Rayapura - 25
Namagondlu - 25
Madlagiri - 25
Manyaramasalawada - 25

Telangana Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 07.03.2015


The upper air cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep and adjoining Maldives area extending upto 0.9 km above mean sea level persists.

in mm (min 20 mm)

Siddipet - 96
Gudur - 43
Enugallu - 43
Dornakal - 40
Redlawada - 39
Bayyaram - 37
Karepalli - 33
Thiramalapur - 32
Bachannapeta - 29
Vattemla - 28
Malliyal - 27
Mahabubabad - 25
Proddatur - 24
Parvathagiri - 24
Kandikatkoor - 23
Pashamylaram - 23
Edulur - 22
Paladugu - 21
Shammirapet - 20
Alladurg - 20
Rajapet - 20
Ramachandrapuram - 20
Komalavancha - 20
Mallaram - 20
Manal - 20
Garla - 20
Nyalkal - 20
Keesara - 20
Nekkonda - 20


Coonoor gets a battering, Tamil Nadu rainfall ending 8.30 am on 06.03.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. over Lakshadweep-Maldives areas now lies over Maldives-Lakshdweep areas. Whenever, a system goes into Arabian Sea from Comrin Sea the steering winds lock the moisture over Coonoor valley and they get very heavy rains. Yesterday was no different.

in mm (min 5 mm)

in mm (min 5 mm)

Runnimedu - 184
Kalrayanhills - 120
Coonoor - 118
Corsely - 116
Coonoor Pto - 113
Kothagiri - 88
Kolakombai - 78
Kundha Bridge - 65
Kundah - 56
Mettur - 50
Ammapet - 35
Lower Kodayar - 30
Ketti - 26
Kodaikanal - 20
Valparai taluk office - 20
Sultanpet - 18
Pegumbahallah - 16
Panamarathupatti - 15
Tiruvallur - 13
Kadamparai - 12
Sankarankoil - 12
Thellar - 11
Mecheri - 11
Yercaud - 10
Upper Aliyar - 8
Periyar - 8
Vaniyambadi - 7
Kadayam - 7
Thunnakkadavu - 6
Mukurthy - 5
Sandayanallah - 5
Vembakottai - 5
Ammapettai - 5
Vagaries Rainman

11 comments:

Hrishikesh said...

Sir mumbai to get rain after Wednesday?

rajesh said...

Hrishikesh: Good chances as of now. Thats why I gave estimate till Wed.Will keep updating.

Pradeep: Good observations and thanks for the regular informations. Appreciate your efforts for Vagaries.

chandan kulkarni said...

Hope will get another super Sunday showers over Belgaum sir. :)

Unknown said...

Rajeshbhai

great effort fr akola farmers. They have just been thru 100 mm + last weekend.

looking forward to updates.

potey

Pradeep said...

Thank you sir.

Hrishikesh said...

Thank you sir will be waiting for the updates hopefully mumbai will get good rains and is there a chance of la nina this year ?

Raj Katalkar said...

Skymet early forecasts saying Good monsoon this year like 2013 for Mumbai and Maharashtra. Is it true Sir?

abizer Kachwala said...

rajesh sir,will it rain in roha and adjoining area if so, how much and when?it would be my pleasure if you replied. thanks in advance

rajesh said...

Hrishikesh: Not La Nina, but El nino expected this year. Shall put up details on this next week.

Raj Katalkar: We will review and see the Monsoon forecast from april when we start our Monsoon Watch series

Abizer: Light rains in Roha and Pen on Wed and Thursday.Not much , upto 5 mms.

abizer Kachwala said...

rajesh sir,el nino sign is still on alert.first you forecasted rain in roha,panvel on 9th.so what made it delay till wed-thur.will it rain in mumbai also?sir, please post something on that on page

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Storm was more sevre in south ncr .Ballabgarh in faridabad had hailstorm with heavy rain.