Thursday, March 12, 2015

Mumbai had a violent thunder and Lightening experience early Saturday morning. Though rainfall was less, 1.7 mms in Scruz, 0.4 mms at Colaba and 5 mms at Vagaries, the "electric" intensity was high.
Sunday 15th and Monday 16th will turn out to be pleasant, and light cloudings in the sky. Days around 31c and North evening breeze cooling the nights at 23c. Days warming up on Tuesday.

As expected, Rainfall in Sindh and other regions of Pakistan from M-3 ...see Vagaries Pakistan....and now M-3 interacting with Easterlies and rains as forecasted (Below)

Thunder showers in Aurangabad on Friday Night...Parts of Pune receive showers and Karachi had some rains today (Friday). time for 10.30 pm Live Maharashtra Rainfall Update from Vagaries Rainman
in mm
Kopergaon - 16
Khamgaon - 13
Ghoddam - 11
Madh - 10
Shridi - 9
Khodad - 7
Chincodi Patil - 7
Auangabad - 6
Ahmednagar - 5
Pimpalgaon - 4
Rahuri - 3
Kolgaon - 3

Thursday 12th March 2015: 

Hottest Places in Asia: Bhumibol Dam (Thailand)...39.8c, Hinthanda (Myanmar) 39.6c...Nakhon Sawan (Thailand) and Meiktila (Myanmar).. 39.5c.
Hottest in India: Ratnagiri...39.0c, Mumbai SCruz...38.8c.

Our expected Western disturbance M-3 is on its way.

Pakistan:
Heavy initial precipitation in Central parts of Sindh and rains in rest of Sindh region.  Light Rains in Hyderabad and Lower Sindh cities. 
Karachi gets light to medium rains on Friday 13th ( 3-5 mms).Islamabad can get showers on Sunday, dropping the day temperatures to 16/17c on Sunday with around 10 mms. Sunday /Monday rains in Gujrat (Pakistan) with cooler Sunday at 18c. Around 15 mms expected on Sunday and Monday cumulative.

As the WD trough moves Eastwards, it will form an induced Low over Central Pakistan and adjoining India on 14th March.
This will attract most of the rains, and bring scattered rains in Northern most regions of Pakistan. Plains States of Northern India like Punjab, Rajasthan, Delhi and West UP will get heavy rains on Saturday 14th.

Mumbai: Wednesday night , South and Central Mumbai had light drizzles. Outer townships like Badlapur had medium showers, around 6 mms. After a very hot 38.8c on Thursday, with no more rains, Mumbai will see a relief with day dropping to 34c from Friday. 

New Delhi, as mentioned in previous posts, gets rains from Friday 13th night thru Monday. Sunday evening will see heavy thunder showers amounting to 15 mms on Sunday.

Bhopal: Showers start from Friday evening, with the heaviest on Saturday evening, the thunderstorm bringing almost 25 mms on Sunday evening/night.

Pune: Chances of some showers in parts of city on Friday, before the rains decease.

Akola Region: Friday and Saturday will be cloudy, with light showers continuing. Not very significant, maybe just around 3-5 mms. 

Aurangabad ; After a good 12 mms on Wednesday night, Aurangabad is expected to get another showers on Friday night also, with cloudy weather till Saturday. 
Farmers from Akola and Aurangabad regions are requested to keep from harvesting and cutting standing crop till Monday when full sunshine is expected.

Bangalore will get a thunderstorm on Monday afternoon/evening. Heavy in parts, will see around 20 mms.

Expecting Rains in Iduki District of Kerala on Sunday/Monday and Tuesday in the afternoons. Around 30 mms cumulative these 3 days.

Time Permitting, Request Forecast for any other city will be given..

Long Term Forecast;
A Low embedded in Upper trough will bring showers to Sindh on 21st....M-4 expected in North Sub Continent, starting from 24th.

15 comments:

vikas malik said...
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vikas malik said...
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rajesh said...

vikas: Thanks for the information. Expect rains again in Ujjain on Saturday night and Sunday Afternoon.

Hrishikesh said...

Extremely loud thunder storm and heavy rain in Western mumbai

sset said...

Navi Mumbai very heavy lightings + thunderstorms early dawn... looks like start of SWM. Maharashtra has received rains throughout the year...Very windy now - entire landscape has become dense greem

sset said...

Western disturbances are increasingly becoming stronger for past 4-5 years. Erstwhile dry areas like RAJ,Haryana,GUJ are increasingly becoming wetter - apart from regular monsoons. Myself still have same opinion driest regions of India - South east India -> Rayalseema(AP),SE interior KAR,interiors of TN - much left to mercy of ever failing NE monsoons...

Abhijit said...

What an start for the day.. Woke up at 6am with huge thunder sound. Badlapur received two TS back to back. 1st TS gave thick drop light rain with huge lightning and loud thundering from 6.15am to 6.45am. Then 2nd TS came from 7.15am to 7.45am which was more intense with huge vertical lightning strike & ear crackling thunder and with very gusty South winds.

Pavan said...

ya sset agreed with your comment two day heavy rains had made situation totally grim...farmers are in huge loses in state...no summer only hottest places are from the state...

Pavan said...

hope the ghat and the western parts including navi mumbai are under evergreen vegetation..so no rains required for making them more greener...

Raj Katalkar said...

Rains with Thunders early morning around 4-5am here in South-central Mumbai?

Raj Katalkar said...

South and west are the directions from where Mumbai and Konkan areas mainly receives Rains during Monsoons and unseasonably also. Very rare from East and North. Sir, Why we are getting rains usually from these directions only?

Hrishikesh said...

Sir what is the forecast up ahead for mumbai and what are the views on current rains maybe we will get again in April

rajesh said...

Raj Katalkar: Monsoon rains of course come from Sw as monsoon winds . They are seasonal and chnage direction from SE to SW after crosssing equator. Off season, also we get major rains from SW, as they are induced by Lows in central India. I have explained this low coming on Friday/Saturday in this post. So, the air rushes towards the Low. Mumbai gets thunder storms in the beginning of Monsoon and end of Monsoon from East. This is because the thunder cells form over the ghats and drift towards Mumbai.

Hrishikesh: Current rains are due to the induced low over central India. Explained in this post as coming from M-3. April ? It is beyond my capacity and knowledge to forecast 1 month in advance :-)

Raj Katalkar said...

Thnx Sir. Nice explanation

Nilay Wankawala said...

ENSO wrap up from bureau of metereology Australia.17 03 2015.
Tropical cyclone activity may lead to further ocean warmingThe past fortnight has seen unusual conditions in the tropical Pacific, which may increase the chance of El Niño in 2015.In the western Pacific, severe tropical cyclone Pam and tropical storm Bavi straddled the equator, producing one of the strongest reversals in the trade winds in recent years. This change is expected to increase the already warm sub-surface temperatures currently observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures in the coming months. However, it remains too early to say whether the reversal in the trade winds is a short term fluctuation or the beginning of a sustained trend.International models surveyed by the Bureau have strengthened their outlooks for the likelihood of El Niño, with all eight models suggesting ocean temperatures will exceed El Niño thresholds by mid-year. However, model outlooks spanning the traditional ENSO transition period, February to May, generally have lower accuracy than outlooks made at other times of year.The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño WATCH. This is due to a combination of warmer-than-average sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and models indicating that central and eastern tropical Pacific will warm to El Niño thresholds by mid-year. An El Niño WATCH indicates that there is about a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2015—double the normal likelihood of an event.El Niño is often associated with below-average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia.