Wednesday, March 11, 2015

El Nino....Likely This Year ? El Niño forecast indicates brightening chances of El Niño forming after June  2015.

The central to western regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed by 0.2 °C to 0.3 °C over the past fortnight, while monthly sub-surface temperatures were more than 2 °C above average over a large area for February. This is largely the result of weakened trade winds and tropical surface currents in recent weeks.

Warmer-than-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and models indicate that further warming is likely in coming months. 

Weakened trade winds are forecast to continue, and this may induce further warming.
All international models  indicate that central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are likely to remain warmer than average, but within the neutral range, until at least May. 

 

indications point that SSTs will exceed El Niño thresholds. 


The most recent Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value is −0.5 to 8 March 2015, and the latest sea surface temperature anomaly in the central Pacific (NINO3.4 region) is +0.5 °C. 

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate La Niña, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate El Niño. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.

There is evidence that the MJO influences the ENSO cycle. It does not cause El Niño or La Niña, but can contribute to the speed of development and intensity of El Niño and La Niña episodes.
Overall, the MJO tends to be most active during ENSO neutral years, and is often absent during moderate-to-strong El Niño and La Niña events. The MJO activity during late 2007 and early 2008, which occurred during La Niña conditions, is unusual but not
unprecedented.




No strong MJO seen till mid April in our seas ( North Indian Ocean).
Excerpts from Aust.Bur of Met

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Maharashtra continues to get rains, ending 8.30 am on 12.03.2015

The trough at mean sea level from Lakshadweep area to north Konkan now extends from Lakshadweep area to Gujarat region across coa stal areas of Karnataka and Maharashtra.

in mm (min 25 mm)

Anturli - 59
Akole - 55
Patur - 46
Vihigaon - 41
Alegaon - 40
Pachgani - 39
Dhad - 38
Amalner - 37
Ambegaon - 37
Manikodh - 35
Jawala - 35
Dhaba - 35
Amalgaon - 35
Chowka - 35
Sasti - 34
Bharwas - 34
Khaknar - 32
Shirud - 32
Agar - 31
Jalgaonamod - 30
Channi - 30
Wazar - 30
Umara - 30
Kalegaon - 29
Medshi - 29
Sanglud - 29
Sawalikheda - 28
Wadner - 28
Wadshingi - 28
Babhulgaon - 28
Wawade - 28
Khadkwasla - 27
Dhanora - 27
Akolkhed - 27
Adgaon - 26
Kalmodi - 26
Wyala - 26
Akot - 26
Pimpalgaon - 25
Ansing - 25
Kapustalani - 25
Pankanhergaon - 25
Shelu - 25
Anjangaon - 25
Jafrabad - 25
Shiravali - 25
Madh - 25
Moleshwari - 25
Raver - 25

Vagaries Rainman 

4 comments:

rajesh said...

Early (Pre Dawn) Thursday morning drizzle in South Mumbai measures 0.2 mms at Colaba and 0.2 mms at Vagaries...

Raj Katalkar said...

Light to medium rains here in Prabhadevi, Mumbai around 3 am early morning...

Hrishikesh said...

Yes we got drizzle in morning but extremely hot now with East winds hope for more rain in coming days

Abhijit said...

Badlapur received 20mins spell of medium to heavy shower rain with thick drops in early morning at 4.30am today on 12th Mar 2015. Also inter clouds lightning was seen.

But after that it has turn super hot in fternoon.