Saturday, September 06, 2014






Jammu and Kashmir September 2014 Historic Rains
Place / Date 4th 5th 6th 7th Total
Katra 67 280 210 210 767
Kawa 64 152 260 136 612
Udhampur 493
Banihal 107 189 86 54 436
Jammu 40 101 218 77 436
Batote 102 210 120 432
Govindapura 71 202 102 27 402
Chatha 43 94 228 365
Rajpura Mandi 161 138 55 6 360
Khudwani 92 136 76 48 352
Shopian 68 140 85 54 347
Khulgam 82 138 77 48 345
Baderwah 81 140 100 321
Gulmarg 110 128 40 278
Malangapura 61 102 66 45 274
Kukernag 119 149 268
Phalgam 68 54 50 31 203
Anatnag 180 180
Baramullah 65 84 28 177
Bakore 166 166
Quazigund  157 157
Srinagar 52 49 23 23 147
Bandipora 50 72 22 144
Rambagh 51 52 18 19 140
Kupwara 46 70 10 126
Shalimar 53 53
Konibal 52 52
Awantipur 51 51
Samba  50 50
Rajouri 40 40

More Details on Kashmir Deluge in Vagaries Rainman 

SWM 2014 thus far. An brief Review....6th September

From a threatening -47% down to -12% today. The country has received 655 mms against a normal of 765 mms till date. Thats the overall All India Monsoon Position. Thanks to massive rains in Jammu Kashmir and Punjab last few days, the overall deficit has come to almost reasonable and "civilised" levels.In fact, a few more % points reduction and the dubious label of "drought" will be wiped out. IMD considers a drought year if the deficit falls below -10%. Seems likely to be covered this year.
India normally receives 890 mms in the 4 months of SWM season as a long term average.
Situation is far better than the worst year 2009. That year, the deficit at the end of the season was -23%.
But, still there are a few areas of concern. Punjab, UP and Marathwada amongst them. I would put it like this: the situation in these few regions is still far from being "drought free".Marathwada may see very good rains next few days from BB-8.
However, thinking positively, the late surge of rains in Punjab and Rajasthan and NW India, will benefit the rabi season immensely. It will be saturating the soil with sufficient soil moisture.

But, the water position may not be as comfortable. The overall water reservoir stocks is below normal,except in Central India. North ndia, which has seen the maximum shortage of adequate rainfall, sees the stock of reservoirs at 79% ( 93% last year) of full capacity. Eastern India stocks show 68% (75% last year) of full capacity. Western India 70% (76%) of capacity and South India 68% (81% last year. Central India is the lone zone seeing better than last year levels at 74% (58% last year).
The Overall country average is 71% ( 87%) of capacity against full level.

See Mumbai Page for Mumbai Monsoon Review and next few days forecast for Mumbai
BB-8, centred over Coastal Odisha Saturday evening, will deepen and track West initially on Sunday and Monday. Precipitation over Odisha , Chattisgarh and then into Vidharbh and Madhya Maharastra on Sunday/Monday.

Vagaries SWM Contest 2014

Congrats Puneet for taking the lead. Abhijeet and Chaudhary are very close at 2nd spot.

For the Month of August Rohit has topped the points.

Please check your points, in case of any corrections please msg to my FB message box.

The finale is there. Please participate and win your deserving certificates from Vagaries for the season ending Contest. Post your entries in the below link

Vagaries Season Ending contest 2014

6 comments:

moon toon said...

sir what you think about rain in sindh and karachi. any hope or its last.

prabhu archana said...

Sir any updates for kerala?

abizer Kachwala said...

rajesh sir, what is your forecast for konkan [north] during monday to wednesday. forecasts have shown heavy rains on 11th september. so sir kindly inform me to clear the doubt.thanks in advance.
no rains were seen in north konkan today: it was sunny with with very light showers in nagothane. sir tell yourr forecast about this region .thanks
roha:4mm 24 hr rainfall
nagothane:2mm
pali:3mm
whem will monsoon withdraw from mumbai?

Nilay Wankawala said...

Lets hope 2014 is not labeled as a drought year for india although subdivision wise it has performed very poorly in terms of distribution and spread both all over India. With September rains coming to rescue as rajesh sir has pointed out wil be saved from drought label.

sset said...

What about SE interior KAR? BANG,KOLAR,Tumkur,Mandya,Chinatmani,Chikhannalli,Hassan,Gauribidneur,... all places in border of KAR,AP,TN,rayalseema.. very less rain since june... only 250mm. September supposed to be rainiest for BANG but only few sprinkles..

sset said...

surprise, surprise Mumbai/Navi Mumbai - today is first time since june it has not rained over Navi Mumbai - unbelievable. Anyway is it welcome relief from non stop torrential downpours.. birds are having good time drying wet feathers niece to watch good shake millions of water drops flying...We are all waiting for SWM withdrawal and start for NEM
(but we never know natures secrets)