Sunday, August 03, 2014

Posted on Sunday night: Mumbai City, after low rains on weekend,  may see increase in Rainfall to 30-35 mms/day  on Monday 4th and Tuesday.
Outer Townships get increase compared to weekend...

El-Nino Status 2014....prepared on 3rd August 2014.

The El Nino 2014 has stalled ! And Neutral Conditions Continue.

ENSO to develop requires the Sea Surface Temperatures to warm up. And the warming should go beyond the +0.5c anomaly. For this, the atmospheric support is needed. And that is suddenly lacking this last 15 days. ENSO can develop into El Nino with the assistance of both the sea and atmospheric parameters.

As a result, the Sea surface temperatures have stopped warming, in fact cooled a bit. Our region concern is the NINO 3.4...it has cooled by 0.3c last 15 days, and that anomaly is near about the long term average.


SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) last observed was -5.2. Certainly refraining us from calling it an El Nino event .

The strong MJO wave has moved East, and Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were observed near Indonesia and in the western Pacific. Factors related to this like Kelvin Wave and Tropical Cyclones have influenced the convection.


In 2nd and 3rd week of August, our seas can get a "Neutral MJO" condition..
Normally, MJO forecasts are most accurate when the MJO event has started. That is when enhanced convective activity starts developing, and the "wave" propagates Eastwards.

Ocean Nino Index. This index should be +0.5 for 5 consecutive overlapping seasons. Current Index is 0.2.

The Aust. Bureau of Met has given the "Watch" status to the event.Given recent easing in conditions and model outlooks, if an event when occurs, is unlikely to be strong. 


Hence, formation of Proper El Nino difficult to occur before November 2014. 

Vagaries Contest July Results are out - Checkout your July score and overall standings and also participate in August Contest. See contest page for more information.


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BB-6 on Odisha..Report see Current Weather Page & See Mumbai Page for Rohit's Presentation

16 comments:

KHYATI PANDIT said...

sir what is your forcast of rain for monday ,tuesdday n wednesday n for the whole week rain forcaste for mumbai till rakshabandhan atleast

KHYATI PANDIT said...

currently its rainying very very heavy in mira road with some sun shines in between.

parshuram shinde said...

EXTREAM HAVEY RAIN IN SANTACRUZ NOW

Hrishikesh said...

sir i did not understand the southern oscillation thing means will we get more rains till november?

Junaid said...

Seasonal total of new panvel is at 2022 mm
Source - private reading!

abizer Kachwala said...

sir how much it will rain on tuesday and monday in raigad district?how will be the rainfall in this mnth in this district.

Abhijit said...

Hi Nilesh, You must be missing your hometown Sambhalpur massive rain and cool weather this year !! Otherwise last few years you used to comment here in blog that every BB low giving massive to many part of Orissa why only Sambhalpur missing it !
Any ways I m sure you must be enjoying our west coast Valsad rain this year.
As Valsad current SWM season total rainfall is 1557mm till today.. So in excess by 347mm !

Abhijit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Nilay Wankawala said...

Sudeden changes in parameters leading to el nino suggesting easing out of phenomena even if it occurs proves tht one can only makee efforst to forecast the weather bt can not predict the exact occurence of even. At the begining of this year US forecasters wre predicting a very strong occurence of el nino and they all are being proved wrong today.

prabhu archana said...

rajesh sir cam we expect normal rain falls in kerala this month its been pouring heavily for the last few days...its raining cats and dogs tonyt... please update the status for us sir its been lng since u gave us an update...

Nilay Wankawala said...

Lots of spell mistakes in my post by me appologising for typing errors

rajesh said...

prabhu archana: Firstly would like to know where exactly, near which place, are your plantations located ?
Iddukki region had good rains between 7 cms (Munnar) and averaging around 4cms in most places.
Idukki dist has received almost normal rains till today. 1367 mms against normal of 1418 mms.
Would expect same trend on Monday 4th, a slight decrease on Tuesday. Rainfall decreasing for 3/4 days from Tuesday 5th evening. Much less rains from Wednesday.

prabhu archana said...

thnx for the reply rajesh sir... our plantation is located in anaivilasam idukki... we did recieve rains as per ur prediction sir jus curious to know if there are any chances of failure in rains In the coming months... thnx a lot for ur prompt response sir...

Junaid said...

New Panvel recorded 85 mm ending 8:30 am today! Substantial increase in rains since night

Abhijit said...

Heavy rain lashes Thane District..

Some rainfall in mms ending 8.30am today(04-08-2014):

Shahapur 180
Murbad 112
Bhivandi 90
Ambernath 87
Barvi Dam(Badlapur)& Ulhasnagar 84
Kalyan 82
Thane 74
Rabale, Navi Mumbai 41

Also medium to heavy rain lashes in newly form Palghar district :

Wada 85
Vasai 72
Vikramgadh 60
Palghar 56
Jawhar 42
Surya Dhamani Dam 39
Mokhada 36
Talasari 27
Dahanu 24

Mumbai water supplying lakes rainfall ending 8.30am today(04-08-2014):

Bhatsa 124
Tansa 120
Middle Vaitarna 78
Modak Sagar & Tulshi(Mumbai) 75
Vihar lake(Mumbai) 62
Vaitarna 34
Colaba 29
Santacruz 27

Ghat rainfall ending 8.30am today:

Mulshi 113
Koyna 94
Lonavala 89
Walvan, Lonavala 81
Mahabaleshwar 75

Abhijit said...

Mulshi near of Tamhini ghat recorded 113mm rainfall ending 8.30am today with this achieves 4000mm mark. Total seasonal rainfall 4060mm till today.