Sunday, August 24, 2014

Posted Tuesday Night: On Wednesday 27th, an UAC will most likely form in the Central Bay, around 15N and 85E. Around the 700 level, it could descend to form a sea level low in the same region and then track Westwards...more on this when the forecast for Thursday onwards is put up..


Posted Sunday 24th Night..

Initial Indication of Season Change is seen at 200 mb levels. Jet streams have become Westerly above the 25N line. Monsoon can see a change in the next 10 days...

A trough off the West Coast of India remains active.
A UAC could form in the trough somewhere around South Konkan.

On Tuesday, we can expect an interaction of North winds and West winds around N.I.Karnataka regions.

Monday 25th August: 
Heavy Rainfall Regions: South Konkan. 
Later in the day, Complete interior regions East of Mumbai covering Eastern Townships. Central and Eastern Saurahtra covering Rajkot, Ahemadabad, North Junagadh and Amreli and Bhavnagar districts.
Moderate Rainfall: N.I. Karnataka (Belgaum) and adjoining Telengana (Hyderabad). Marathwada and rest of Maharashtra State. South Rajasthan (Udaipur).
Coastal Odisha South of Bhubaneshwar and adjoining interior regions.



Tuesday 26th August: 
Heavy Rainfall: South Konkan, Eastern Telengana and adjoining AP,Aurangabad, Ahmednagar, N.I.Karnataka (Belgaum), 
Moderate Rains in South Gujarat (more interior), Rest of Madhya Mah and Marathwada and Karnataka.



Wednesday 27th August:
Heavy Rainfall continues in Madhya Maharashtra.
Rains in Karnataka and interior Maharashtra continue in Marathwada, though reduced. South Konkan continues to get thunder showers.
Light showers in North rajasthan, West UP and Delhi/Haryana.
Light showers in Delhi on Wednesday 27th and 28th August.
Rains reducing in Eastern India.

Mumbai City: 
Monday and Tuesday: Partly cloudy with sunny periods. Showers in parts of city indicating different intensities in pockets. Evening showers in South Mumbai.
Overall rain average will be around 25-30 mms /day. 
Eastern Townships get heavy thunder showers. Northern township regions it seems may get showers late Monday night.
Wednesday: Mainly cloudy, with rain showers in most parts of city. Rain amount will be around 35 mms average.

Pune: Monday and Tuesday: An afternoon/evening thunder shower. But variable in intensity in different parts. Waiting for Wednesday and Thursday, as we see major increase in rains. Rains in excess of 45 mms. ( Could change if the LWD fails to develop).

Bangalore: Light showers in vicinity continues into next week.

Hyderabad: Showers or thundershowers on Monday. On Wednesday, heavy showers may reoccur. 

Pakistan : Moderate rainfall in Northern divisions.Islamabad gets the shower. Parts of Upper Sindh may get the dust or thunder storm.
Karachi partly cloudy and hot. 


Article appearing in Lokmat Times on Monday 25th August...Current Weather Page

15 comments:

Nilesh Ladhad said...

Any rain in kutch and morbi during next 8 to 10 days.

parshuram shinde said...

In SANTACRUZ VERY LIGHT THUNDER SHOWER

prabhu archana said...

Any updates for kerala sir?

Abhijit said...
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Abhijit said...
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Abhijit said...

Heavy TS lashed Chennai in midnight. NGBKM 89.3mm & MNBKM recorded 85.2mm rainfall ending 8.30am today. Min temp was 22.2c so quite cool for Chennaities..

Abhijit said...

Pune recorded 63.3mm rainfall ending 8.30am today. Min temp 21.5c.

Krishnakumar Bulusu said...

I was there in the thuderstorm driving my way back home.

Chennai Airport- Cumulative rainfall crosses 40 CMS from june..

Avg Rainfall during June-Sep- 35-40 CMS...

As I have been observing chennai weather for 30 years now i could say in the last 5-6 years Rains are increasing in this period..
2010,2011 we had close to 70 CMS infact...

Sir Any new trend eveloving because i am also worried about NE . whats the status like for this NE monsoon....

Regards
Krishna

sset said...

Pune nearly touched 600mm, Ahemdabad 700mm - Bangalore,Hyderabad just 250mm of rain since june. Many places over interior KAR - within 150mm of rain...rain eludes BANG again..

rajesh said...

.Explanation of my Statement: Every Meteorologist from our region should know that the 100 and 200 level winds are the "season makers". The initial change in season from SWM advance to withdrawal are first indicated by gradual reversal of these level winds...Repeat GRADUAL REVERSAL" .To see any change in season or any change in pattern, one must observe almost daily the 200 level jet streams. Daily since their change is gradual. Today we see the core just above the 25N line, and westerlies North of that core....Meaning, the "king maker, 200 stream" are showing coming change of season. Yes...Withdrawal can start aftre about 12 days from extreme West of sub continent...There is a final burst in Pakistan central regions around 5th...and then possible withdrawal around 8th....a tentative estimate
yes, last year 2013, there was a retreat and "re advance" of the Monsoon...see Sept 27th Article here http://www.vagaries.in/2013_09_01_archive.html

Krishna: No new trend at least now...we will discuss and put up NEM note last week of September...things will be clear by then...Aug gets the heaviest SWM rains in Chennai

Vijayanand said...

Heavy rain in goregoan last night from 10.00 to 10.30 pm. Would be in Mumbai for a week. Hope to catch some good rains.

Vijayanand said...

Today since afternoon its been on and off light rain in Andheri and goregoan.

rajesh said...

vijayanand: glad to know you are in Mumbai...if you are in town for next 2/3 days, maybe we can meet...

Dattaraj Joshi said...

As predicted, Hyderabad received some showers today. I hope tomorrow it will be heavy. It needs rains badly.

rohit aroskar said...

Congrats to vagaries for 700000 hits..many more to come