Friday, August 08, 2014

Posted Friday Night:


Both the UACs mentioned yesterday have done their job...
We can see the Eastren UAC bringing rains to the coastal Delta region..with Kolkata getting 9.8 mms till 5.30 pm
and Kutch also getting rain on Friday, like New Kandla 58 mms, Bhuj 19 mms and Kandla AP 14 mms. Porbandar on the Saurashtra coast received 59 mms (All Gujarat rainfall from 8.30 am -5.30 pm IST Friday).
No meaningful rains in Sindh.

Mumbai Scruz got 14 mms and Colaba 6 mms till 8.30 pm IST Friday..

Saturday and Sunday, Vagaries forecast seems to be on schedule, and could be on same lines mentioned on Thursday Night Post (Below). Axis Moves Northwards, and UACs getting weaker.

Increasing rains in Chattisgarh and UP and adjoing MP and showers in NCR.


Posted Thursday Night>..Weekend forecast...

BB-6 behaved on expected lines. 
Parts of Saurastra received rains on Wednesday, and on and went into the East Rajasthan region and poured 274 mms in Bhinay (Ajmer Dist), Hurda (Bhilwara) 257 mms, Jayal 155 mms and 116 mms in Kota and 43 mms over Udaipur on Wednesday as expected. 
However, parts of Punjab shown in light blue colour for Wednesday, received fair rains. Chandigarh got 10 mms, Patiala 30 mms, Ambala 39 mms.
Most of Punjab remains heavily deficit.




The expected rians in NCR was less than expected, and only Southern parts got light rains on Wednesday. 
Karachi airport got very light drizzles , just 0.1 mms as on Thursday morning. Islamabad got 17 mms and Lahore received 9 mms.

A UAC moves into Gangetic West Bengal and Coastal Bangladesh. Being weak, it would dissipate soon in the region. Rains in coastal delta on Friday, and heavy in many regions.

Another UAC over Kutch. Being feeble, it would move West into the SE Sndh coast and dissolve. Friday rains in Kutch would move into Sindh and coastal Sindh on Saturday.
Karachi cold be cloudy with light rains.
Sunday weather rains decrease and cease in this region.

The axis moves North towards the Northern plains of India from Saturday. Moderate rains and thunder showers could be possible in Delhi NCR and adjoining UP, Haryana and North MP on Saturday and Sunday.
East UP, East MP and Chattisgarh may get heavy showers on Sunday due to an upper level trough
Pak Punjab could see some rains being the Western end of the axis.

Saturday onwards, almost negligible rains in the Central region, interior peninsula and Southern peninsula. 
Bangalore cloudy with few showers in the vicinity.
West coast gets moderate rains with Karnataka coastal towns getting 35-50 mms. Good rains in Goa this weekend.

Mumbai: 
Friday : Partly cloudy with sunny periods.. Showers at intervals and a few can be sharp and heavy. 15-20 mms
Saturday: Partly cloudy with passing showers, particularly in the early evening and night. 20 mms
Sunday: Sunny and passing showers. Few heavy in some parts of city in the day time and less by night. 20 mms
Average rain per day: 15-20 mms.
Outer townships will also get passing showers. sunday afternoon may see longer spells..


Delhi NCR: Good chances and sighns of thunder showers in parts on Saturday late afternoon and on Sunday. 

13 comments:

moon toon said...

great way of presenting forcast. hatsoff.

Tyrone said...

Sadly KHI didn't get heavier rains from BB6 :(

rajesh said...

Ameya: Matheran would be foggy and pleasant, with a temperature range of 23/24c in the day and 19/20c at night. Passing heavy showers will keep the air humid.Rain amount last 2 days was 72 mms and 53 mms, taking the toatal to 2515 mms (100 inches). Next 2 days we can expect a little lass, say between 35-45 mms per day in showers.

rajesh said...

abizer: Raigad district will get some passing showers in patches next 2 days with sunny periods. No UAC is expected this weekend..around 25-35 mms average rains..

rajesh said...

N.Wankavala: It is impossible to get a correct assessment of the El Nino..and variations and deviations do take place almost every 15 days..but the forecasts are made by international models on the current situation and parameters

Sheeraz Yousfani said...

When will hyderabad sindh get haivy rains sir.

abizer Kachwala said...

thankyou sir, what are your views on rainfall in this month in raigad. will it be normal or deficient

rajesh said...

vicky moyal reports good rains from Kolkata...34 mms till night on Friday

Vinod Desai said...

How next weekend look for mahabaleshwar.i have planned to visit there.

sset said...

Mumbai lakes excellent position - better than 2013 august - after july 2014 torrential rains. Entire Mumbai-Navi Mumbai-Thane lush green trees.
South India - AP very scanty zone - interiors of KAR/TN - will monsoon revive?
NW India - GUJ/RAJ have escaped drought - torrential vigorous BBn rains...

prabhu archana said...

rajesh sir rains hav dropped in kerala... any chances for rains to increase this month or is the monsoon coming to an end... thx in advance sir

sset said...

Very heavy rains over Navi Mumbai.

http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report-stock-in-dams-across-mumbai-at-4-year-high-thanks-to-consistent-rain-2009235

sset said...

Over million people hit by drought in Sri Lanka. Northern and eastern sri lanka are worst hit. In fact except for few days (1-2 days) during june monsoon has completely eluded entire Sri Lanka.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/sri-lanka-drought-hits-one-million-114080401285_1.html

http://newsfirst.lk/english/2014/07/severe-drinking-water-problems-faced-people-several-districts/46712

Worst fear can be with SE India (TN) - proximity to Sri Lanka may again enter into 4th year of drought if NE monsoon fails? Looking at recent years of SE monsoon only West coast, central India seems to be water assured in coming years.