Saturday, April 07, 2012


Vagaries' Sunday  Weekly  Forecast for  the  week 8th April to 15th April





1. A-1 moving into Indian Sub-Continent brings "normal" day temperatures to "Western Half" of India, and an above normal Heat Wave to the "Eastern Half". 
After appearing in N.Pakistan, A-1 is moving into Northern India on Sunday. Sunday and Monday will see precipitation from this W.D. in Kashmir, H.P, and Utteranchal. Some (moderately) heavy precipitation possible in Upper reaches of Kashmir/H.P. System moves away quickly in a NE direction, avoiding Central Nepal. 


However, moisture from the trough running thru W.Bengal, M.P. and Interior Mah into the Arabian Sea, and UAC embedded will bring rains to Eastern 
Nepal and Kathmandu from Wednesday.


Sindh and Balochistan regions of Pakistan will also benefit this week with day temperetures running in the "Normal" range.


2. Result will be a drop in day temperatures in the Upper states and Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana and Western U.P. in the initial days of the week till 12th April.
A fall in night temperatures, falling to slightly below normal levels likely in these states and interior Mah. (Western Regions of State).


3. A trough line, or a line of wind dis-contiunity runs during the week from W.Bengal, Chattisgarh thru Vid thru S.I.Mah into the Arabian Sea. A UAC embedded in the Eastern fringe will remain stationary alongwith the trough.


This could bring very heavy rains initially on Mon/Tues/Wed to Bangladesh and adjoining NE India and Eastern parts of W.Bengal. regions and hill of Meghalaya will get very heavy rains on Tuesday/Wednesday
'Very Gusty winds with rough seas likely On Wed/Thursday along W.Bengal and Bangladesh coastline.


Some light rainfall can be expected in North A.P. and adjoining S. Mah on Wed/Thursday along the trough line.


Heat Waves Conditions are likely to be confined to the East during the week. Heat wave, that is day temperatures above normal, will be felt on Mon/Tuesday in Gujarat and adjoining West M.P.


But from Wednesday, heat waves will be moving East from these Western regions, and all the NW states, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi will be around the normal range in the second half of the week. 
Heat Wave will then be restricted in the Vid, Chattisgarh and Orissa region. Nagpur will see rise to above normal day temperatures from Wed thru the week. The week may see highs of 42/43c in the city.


In fact, Sindh (Pakistan) may see normal to below normal day temperatures from Tuesday thru the week. 
After hitting 45c in interior Sindh /Balochistan, the highest day temperatures will drop by a few degress from Wed thru the week in the interior regions. Maybe just touching 41/42c in some cities like Turbat or Nawabshah.


Strong winds will lash the Sindh coast from the westerly direction.


Vagaries' Weekly forecast put up last week (1st to 8th april) showed point nos 1,3,4, and 5 accurate and on the spot. Point to was partly correct as the the rains extended thru interior Karnataka into interior Mah. (Not forecasted this far North). Overall accuracy was 85%.


City wise Forecast:


Delhi, staying around 37/38c last week, will remain in the 38c average in the days. In fact expecting it to be around 23/24c in the nights, which is fairly tolerable. 


Mumbai (remaing within 32c) is doing fairly well with the lows at 22c. Next week should see days around 33c and nights around 24c, still below the 25c mark. Strong N winds and West winds in the evenings will bring in increased humidity by next week. The comfort levels may fall, but the temps will be in control. 
Pune was expected to be around 18/19c in the night, was ok, but fell to 17c on Saturday. Next week the days could rise to 38c, but nights will be very comfortable around 18/19c.


Karachi was constant around 37c in the week, with Sukkur hovering around 40c in the second half of the week. This week  will be in the normal (below normal in some areas) for Sindh and Balochistan. Karachi could average out 35c in the week.


Kathmandu had rains in the second half of last week. Already gathered 39 mms for this month. Can get alternate thundershowers this week too.



1 comment:

Pradeep said...

All India Rainfall Toppers - 01.01.2012 to 08.04.2012
The rainfall figures given are in mm (Top 20 places - min 200 mm)

Anini (Arunachal Pradesh) - 720
Car Nicobar (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) - 530
Manali (Himachal Pradesh) - 520
Tuting (Arunachal Pradesh) - 480
Cherrapunji (Megahlaya) - 470
Nancowry (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) - 360
Dharmashala (Himachal Pradesh) - 360
Kalpa (Himachal Pradesh) - 350
Bhuntar (Himachal Pradesh) - 270
Passighat (Arunachal Pradesh) -250
Hut Bay (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) - 240
Kavali (Andhra Pradesh) - 233
Piravom (Kerala) - 230
Srinagar - (Jammu & Kashmir) - 210
Shimla (Himachal Pradesh) - 210
Silchar (Assam) - 200
Tezu (Arunachal Pradesh) - 200
Pechiparai Dam (Tamil Nadu) - 200
Perunchani Dam (Tamil Nadu) - 200
Gangtok (Sikkim) - 200

Other places may also have obtained more rainfall than the station quoted above.

After last year's epic rainfall race for being the wettest places during South West Monsoon. I have compiled a poll for viewers and rain followers voting for the season 2012. The link to the polls is here Poll code http://poll.pollcode.com/w71u . The 2011 rankings can be found here - 2011 SWM rainfall rankings - http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/2011/10/final-verdict-all-india-swm-winner-is.html