Saturday, March 24, 2012


Mumbai: Vagaries had "warned" Mumbai of hot ,dry winds "getting stronger", and the day temperature shooting up to 38c (see wednesday's blog).


Well, it WAS hot and dry on Saturday. Hot winds geared up the day's high to 39.5c, beating the prediction by a degree, and a low humidity of only 13%.
Mumbai Colaba was at a high of 35.5c, and my readings at Breach Candy recorded a high of 35.8c. 


As per Vagaries, Sunday may continue with a high of 38/39c, with hot winds dominating, and low humidity adding to the dryness. Could expect the NE winds to bring down the humidity to 15-20%.
This is again like before, a temporary rise. Monday promises to be better with the high scaling down to around 35c.


More of that in our weekly forecast to be put up in the evening.


Pune was marginally higher as predicted at 38c. But, Surat shot up to 39.8c on Saturday. Should come down to 36c by Monday.


Karachi and Sukkar are still in the "pleasant" range. With a low of 15c at Sukkar, and 18c at Karachi, I would say the regions around are enjoying an extended low temperature period. The highest in Sindh touched 40c at Mithi on Saturday.


Vagaries will be starting the Monsoon Watch series as usual by 10th of April. 


SWM quantum and dates will be discussed in our Monsoon Watch Series. I would justify with the synoptic situations and weather behavioural patterns changes from day to day.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Rajesh,

when do you plan to start the monsoon watch series this year

Regards, Ananth

Ganesh said...

What was d max temp today, Rajesh? Imd predicts a 41 tmmrw..ur thoughts?

sset said...

Hello Rajesh/Pradeep,

It should be also recollected that Andheri Santacruz recorded 1000mm of rain in 24hours during July 2005!!!!

As per 2012 monsoon poll. Myself vote for GaganBawada or Amboli (both in Maharashtra). We have seen in past 5 years increase in intense rains in Maharashtra and most areas of Rajasthan,Gujarat,Central India. On other hand south India rain bands are failing to form between 10-20degree latitude - resulting almost full blown drought over Karnataka, AP, TN. Coming years also will see almost negligible NEM - failing of cyclones. This really needs a research - if risk due to climate changes needs to be analyzed.

Thanks

sset said...

Some analyst have predicted negative 2012 SWM does this imply strong NEM??? What are the reasons??

Pradeep said...

SSET,

for the past three years if you take SWM - maps

2009 - http://www.imd.gov.in/section/hydro/dynamic/rfmaps/seasonal/mon2009.jpg

2010 - http://www.imd.gov.in/section/hydro/dynamic/rfmaps/seasonal/mon2010.jpg

2011 - http://www.imd.gov.in/section/hydro/dynamic/rfmaps/seasonal/mon2011.jpg

the south group (Kerala, Karnataka and TN) are getting normal to excess in SWM

Only once 2011 there was above rainfall in Western India.

Anyways i dont see a change in trend. This year i think the wettest place race will be between Karnataka and Meghalaya

I will vouch for Cherrapunji and Hulikal

At the same time i have also started to like your choice of Gaganbawada. Dont rule out surprise winner from West Bengal (Buxaduar)