Sunday, November 06, 2011
After a NW movement as per last posting, AS-3 has moved due West in the last 6 hrs...from previous location of 10.8N / 67.5E to currently (12 noon IST Sunday) 10.7N / 65 E.....due West.
It seems this change of track from the expected NW track is due to the upper air 200 mb jet streams. These jet stream upper winds have markedly become due West below 15N (not very normal for Nov.) in the last 12 hrs. Even the 500 mb winds are supportive to the upper winds, and are flowing West below the 15N line. Surely influencing the movement of the system. AS-3 Pressure is at 1004 mb with 20-25 knts winds.
System could re-curve the track to NW if it is able to cross the 12/13N line. Otherwise, would maintain a Westerly track.
Resultantly seeing good cooling in the Central India region (M.P./Mah/Gujarat/N.I.Karnataka), and NW plains from early next week.
More on this in a later blog.
Posted Friday 25th afternoon: Parameters wise South West Monsoon has started its Withdrawal phase from North West India and Punjab. Rain...